UEFA Champions League, round 3 · Wednesday, 21 October, MSK
Inter — Shakhtar Donetsk
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 21 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Inter are clear favourites: 66% against 14% for the opponent, draw 20%.
The model expects few goals: 3.1 in total, against a competition average of 3.5.
Over 2.5 goals — 59%, both teams to score — 53%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Inter are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Inter — No. 28, 0 pts; Shakhtar Donetsk — No. 24, 1 pt. A gap of 1 pt.
- Shakhtar Donetsk: 3 wins in a row.
- Last 2 meetings: Inter 1 win, Shakhtar Donetsk 0, 1 draw.
- Days of rest before the match: Inter 8, Shakhtar Donetsk 12.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Inter — Shakhtar Donetsk What is xG? | 2.2–0.9 | |
| Inter not to lose | 86% | |
| Shakhtar Donetsk not to lose | 34% | |
| No draw | 80% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 53% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 47% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 59% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 41% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Inter
- Inter goals
- Shakhtar Donetsk goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 09.10away · Veres Rivne3:0
- 20.09LNZ Cherkasy3:0
- 14.09Chornomorets Odesa2:0
- 10.09away · PSV Eindhoven1:1
- 05.09away · Karpaty2:1
Head to head
- 24.11.2021Inter — Shakhtar Donetsk2:0
- 28.09.2021Shakhtar Donetsk — Inter0:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Fenerbahçe | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 24, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 25 | PSV Eindhoven | 2 | 0 | -1 | 1 |
| 27 | LASK | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 |
| 28 | Inter | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 |
| 29 | FC Porto | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 |
Champions League on the same day
- LilleGalatasaraypreliminary4226311The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- ComoManchester Unitedpreliminary4725271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
- Bayern MünchenArsenalpreliminary5823191The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.0
- Real MadridRB Leipzigpreliminary6719131The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.1
- Sporting CPLASKpreliminary781581The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 4:03.4
- Aston VillaVikingpreliminary7118111The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.2
- Club BruggeLenspreliminary5524211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:12.9
- Real BetisFeyenoordpreliminary4526291The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 66% will not happen in roughly 34 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →