UEFA Nations League, round 4, League B, group 3 · Sunday, 4 October, MSK · TSC Arena
Ireland — Israel
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
1:1Missed
In short
Final score 1:1: the model's most likely outcome, Ireland to win (39%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 39% fails in about 61 matches out of 100 on average.
Ireland are slightly stronger: 39% against 32%, draw 29%.
2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).
Over 2.5 goals — 49%, both teams to score — 55%.
Why
- National-team Elo: Ireland 1717, Israel 1613 — Ireland rated higher.
- Ireland: only 3 days of rest since the previous match.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Ireland — Israel What is xG? | 1.4–1.2 | |
| Ireland not to lose | 68% | |
| Israel not to lose | 61% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 55% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 45% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 49% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 51% |
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- Handicap Ireland
- Ireland goals
- Israel goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 01.10Kosovo0:0
- 27.09Ireland0:3
- 24.09away · Austria1:3
- 03.06away · Albania1:0
- 26.03away · Georgia2:2
Head to head
- 27.09.2026Israel — Ireland0:3
Table
UEFA Nations League on the same day
- 4230281The most likely outcome came true: 11:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 2:1.2.4
- 2326512The most likely outcome did not happen: 21:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 1:2.2.8
- 5829131The most likely outcome came true: 11:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 1:0, exactly right.2.0
- 2425512The most likely outcome did not happen: 20:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 1:2.3.0
- 7218101The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:1, exactly right.3.4
- 5722201The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:1, exactly right.3.4
- 2027532The most likely outcome came true: 20:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 1:2.2.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 39% will not happen in roughly 61 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →