J1 League (Japan), round 10 · Saturday, 17 October, MSK
JEF United Chiba — Yokohama F.Marinos
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 17 October
In short
Yokohama F.Marinos are slightly stronger: 45% against 28%, draw 27%.
2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).
Over 2.5 goals — 50%, both teams to score — 56%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Facts
- League table: JEF United Chiba — No. 19, 5 pts; Yokohama F.Marinos — No. 7, 15 pts. A gap of 10 pts.
- Yokohama F.Marinos: unbeaten in 5.
- Last 2 meetings: JEF United Chiba 0 wins, Yokohama F.Marinos 2.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: JEF United Chiba — Yokohama F.Marinos What is xG? | 1.2–1.5 | |
| JEF United Chiba not to lose | 55% | |
| Yokohama F.Marinos not to lose | 72% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 44% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 50% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 50% |
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Form
- 11.10V-Varen Nagasaki1:1
- 19.09away · Shimizu S-Pulse1:2
- 13.09away · Tokyo Verdy1:1
- 06.09Gamba Osaka2:0
- 02.09Fagiano Okayama FC1:2
- 10.10away · Cerezo Osaka0:0
- 19.09Mito Hollyhock2:0
- 12.09away · Machida Zelvia1:1
- 06.09away · Kashiwa Reysol2:0
- 02.09Kyoto Sanga FC1:1
Head to head
- 29.04.2026JEF United Chiba — Yokohama F.Marinos2:3
- 14.03.2026Yokohama F.Marinos — JEF United Chiba2:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Kashima Antlers | 9 | 5 | +3 | 16 |
| 7 | Yokohama F.Marinos | 9 | 4 | +4 | 15 |
| 8 | Kawasaki Frontale | 9 | 3 | +3 | 13 |
| 18, Relegation | Gamba Osaka | 9 | 1 | -8 | 6 |
| 19, Relegation | JEF United Chiba | 9 | 1 | -11 | 5 |
| 20, Relegation | Tokyo Verdy | 9 | 0 | -10 | 4 |
J1 League on the same day
- 3729341The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
- 751781The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
- 1927542The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.4
- 3627372The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.1
- 5924171The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.7
- 2928422The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.6
- 5625181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 45% will not happen in roughly 55 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →