J1 League (Japan), round 9 · Friday, 9 October, MSK · SANKYO FRONTIER Kashiwa Stadium
Kashiwa Reysol — Vissel Kobe
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In short
Final score 4:2: the model's most likely outcome, Vissel Kobe to win (37%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 37% fails in about 63 matches out of 100 on average.
Evenly matched: Kashiwa Reysol 35%, Vissel Kobe 37%, draw 28%.
2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).
Over 2.5 goals — 49%, both teams to score — 55%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Kashiwa Reysol — Vissel Kobe What is xG? | 1.3–1.3 | |
| Kashiwa Reysol not to lose | 63% | |
| Vissel Kobe not to lose | 65% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 55% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 45% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 49% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 51% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Kashiwa Reysol
- Kashiwa Reysol goals
- Vissel Kobe goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 20.09away · Machida Zelvia4:2
- 11.09away · Kyoto Sanga FC3:2
- 06.09Yokohama F.Marinos0:2
- 02.09away · Cerezo Osaka0:2
- 29.08away · Shimizu S-Pulse1:0
- 20.09away · Gamba Osaka1:0
- 11.09Kashima Antlers2:1
- 06.09V-Varen Nagasaki3:1
- 02.09away · Tokyo Verdy2:0
- 29.08Cerezo Osaka1:0
Head to head
- 12.09.2025Vissel Kobe — Kashiwa Reysol0:0
- 31.05.2025Kashiwa Reysol — Vissel Kobe1:3
- 30.11.2024Kashiwa Reysol — Vissel Kobe1:1
- 02.03.2024Vissel Kobe — Kashiwa Reysol0:1
- 19.08.2023Vissel Kobe — Kashiwa Reysol1:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kashiwa Reysol | 9 | 7 | +7 | 21 |
| 2 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 9 | 6 | +16 | 20 |
| 4 | FC Tokyo | 9 | 6 | +9 | 20 |
| 5 | Vissel Kobe | 9 | 6 | +5 | 19 |
| 6 | Kashima Antlers | 9 | 5 | +3 | 16 |
Next matches
- Kashiwa ReysolNagoya Grampus17 October · J1 League5026231The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- Fagiano Okayama FCVissel Kobe18 October · J1 League3029402The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.3
J1 League on the same day
- 5027231The most likely outcome came true: 12:0Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.2.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 37% will not happen in roughly 63 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →