J1 League (Japan), round 9 · Friday, 9 October, MSK · Mercari Stadium
Kashima Antlers — Gamba Osaka
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
2:0Came true
In short
Final score 2:0: the model's most likely outcome, Kashima Antlers to win (50%), came true.
Kashima Antlers are clear favourites: 50% against 23% for the opponent, draw 27%.
2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).
Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 58%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Kashima Antlers are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Kashima Antlers — Gamba Osaka What is xG? | 1.7–1.1 | |
| Kashima Antlers not to lose | 77% | |
| Gamba Osaka not to lose | 50% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 58% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 42% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 55% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 45% |
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- Gamba Osaka goals
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Form
- 19.09away · Kawasaki Frontale3:3
- 11.09away · Vissel Kobe1:2
- 06.09Urawa Red Diamonds0:1
- 02.09away · Mito Hollyhock2:4
- 29.08away · Tokyo Verdy2:0
- 20.09Vissel Kobe0:1
- 12.09FC Tokyo0:2
- 06.09away · JEF United Chiba0:2
- 02.09away · V-Varen Nagasaki2:2
- 29.08Sanfrecce Hiroshima0:0
Head to head
- 05.10.2025Kashima Antlers — Gamba Osaka0:0
- 31.05.2025Gamba Osaka — Kashima Antlers0:1
- 26.06.2024Kashima Antlers — Gamba Osaka0:0
- 28.04.2024Gamba Osaka — Kashima Antlers1:2
- 24.06.2023Gamba Osaka — Kashima Antlers2:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Vissel Kobe | 9 | 6 | +5 | 19 |
| 6 | Kashima Antlers | 9 | 5 | +3 | 16 |
| 7 | Yokohama F.Marinos | 9 | 4 | +4 | 15 |
| 17 | Avispa Fukuoka | 9 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 18, Relegation | Gamba Osaka | 9 | 1 | -8 | 6 |
| 19, Relegation | JEF United Chiba | 9 | 1 | -11 | 5 |
Next matches
- Shimizu S-PulseGamba Osaka17 October · J1 League3729341The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- Kashima AntlersV-Varen Nagasaki17 October · J1 League5825171The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
J1 League on the same day
- 3528372The most likely outcome did not happen: 24:2Final score 4:2. Model's score: 0:1.2.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 50% will not happen in roughly 50 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →