Kazakhstan Premier League, round 28 · Sunday, 11 October, MSK
Kaspiy Aktau — FC Altai Oskemen
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
2:1Came true
In short
Final score 2:1: the model's most likely outcome, Kaspiy Aktau to win (43%), came true.
Kaspiy Aktau are slightly stronger: 43% against 28%, draw 28%.
2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 45%, both teams to score — 51%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Kaspiy Aktau — FC Altai Oskemen What is xG? | 1.4–1.1 | |
| Kaspiy Aktau not to lose | 72% | |
| FC Altai Oskemen not to lose | 57% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 51% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 49% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 45% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 55% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Kaspiy Aktau
- Kaspiy Aktau goals
- FC Altai Oskemen goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 18.09away · Zhetysu Taldykorgan1:0
- 12.09Aktobe1:2
- 05.09Kairat Almaty0:3
- 30.08Tobol Kostanay1:0
- 16.08FC Yelimay2:2
- 18.09Irtysh Pavlodar1:2
- 13.09away · Ulytau3:0
- 06.09Kaisar Kyzylorda2:0
- 29.08away · Zhenis0:1
- 15.08away · Ordabasy Shymkent1:3
Head to head
- 22.03.2026FC Altai Oskemen — Kaspiy Aktau0:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Zhenis | 27 | 8 | -7 | 32 |
| 10 | Kaspiy Aktau | 27 | 9 | -8 | 32 |
| 11 | FC Kyzylzhar Petropavlovsk | 27 | 7 | -9 | 28 |
| 14 | Kaisar Kyzylorda | 27 | 4 | -14 | 24 |
| 15 | FC Altai Oskemen | 27 | 5 | -14 | 23 |
| 16 | Zhetysu Taldykorgan | 27 | 5 | -19 | 22 |
Next matches
- FC Altai OskemenAtyrau18 October · Kazakhstan Premier League4130291The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.2
- FC AstanaKaspiy Aktau18 October · Kazakhstan Premier League781581The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.1
Kazakhstan Premier League on the same day
- 3028422The most likely outcome did not happen: 22:0Final score 2:0. Model's score: 0:1.2.6
- 1524612The most likely outcome came true: 21:4Final score 1:4. Model's score: 0:2.2.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 43% will not happen in roughly 57 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →