Nigeria NPFL, round 11 · Sunday, 1 November, MSK
Katsina United — Sporting Lagos
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 1 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Katsina United are clear favourites: 60% against 16% for the opponent, draw 24%.
2.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.1).
Over 2.5 goals — 41%, both teams to score — 42%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Katsina United are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Katsina United — Sporting Lagos What is xG? | 1.6–0.7 | |
| Katsina United not to lose | 84% | |
| Sporting Lagos not to lose | 40% | |
| No draw | 76% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 42% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 58% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 41% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 59% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Katsina United
- Katsina United goals
- Sporting Lagos goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 09.10Enyimba4:2
- 04.10away · Inter Lagos1:1
- 30.09Rivers United FC1:1
- 27.09Doma United2:1
- 23.09away · Shooting Stars0:2
- 11.10Bendel Insurance2:1
- 03.10away · Kano Pillars1:1
- 30.09Ikorodu City0:0
- 26.09Barau1:1
- 23.09away · Enyimba3:2
Head to head
- 21.04.2024Katsina United — Sporting Lagos2:0
- 03.12.2023Sporting Lagos — Katsina United1:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Bendel Insurance | 8 | 4 | +1 | 12 |
| 8 | Sporting Lagos | 8 | 3 | +1 | 12 |
| 9 | Katsina United | 8 | 3 | -1 | 12 |
| 10 | Kano Pillars | 8 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
Nigeria NPFL on the same day
- EnyimbaKun Khalifatpreliminary6122161The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.7
- Inter LagosRanchers Beespreliminary373232XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.0
- Kano PillarsNasarawa Unitedpreliminary5826171The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.1
- Kwara UnitedBendel Insurancepreliminary5626181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.2
- Niger TornadoesBaraupreliminary4731221The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:01.6
- Plateau UnitedWarri Wolves FCpreliminary6921111The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.2
- Rivers United FCEnugu Rangerspreliminary6323141The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.1
- Shooting StarsAbia Warriorspreliminary6224151The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 60% will not happen in roughly 40 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →