J1 League (Japan), round 9 · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · Uvance Todoroki Stadium by Fujitsu
Kawasaki Frontale — Nagoya Grampus
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
In short
Final score 1:2: the model's most likely outcome, Kawasaki Frontale to win (46%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 46% fails in about 54 matches out of 100 on average.
Kawasaki Frontale are slightly stronger: 46% against 27%, draw 27%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.1 in total, against a competition average of 2.6.
Over 2.5 goals — 59%, both teams to score — 63%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Facts
- Nagoya Grampus: 4 defeats in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Kawasaki Frontale 3 wins, Nagoya Grampus 2.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Kawasaki Frontale — Nagoya Grampus What is xG? | 1.8–1.3 | |
| Kawasaki Frontale not to lose | 73% | |
| Nagoya Grampus not to lose | 54% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 63% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 37% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 59% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 41% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Kawasaki Frontale
- Kawasaki Frontale goals
- Nagoya Grampus goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 19.09Kashima Antlers3:3
- 12.09away · Mito Hollyhock1:0
- 06.09Shimizu S-Pulse3:1
- 02.09away · Machida Zelvia1:2
- 29.08JEF United Chiba4:2
- 19.09away · FC Tokyo0:1
- 12.09away · V-Varen Nagasaki0:2
- 06.09Machida Zelvia1:3
- 02.09away · Sanfrecce Hiroshima0:3
- 29.08Fagiano Okayama FC2:1
Head to head
- 23.08.2025Nagoya Grampus — Kawasaki Frontale3:4
- 15.02.2025Kawasaki Frontale — Nagoya Grampus4:0
- 22.09.2024Nagoya Grampus — Kawasaki Frontale2:0
- 02.06.2024Kawasaki Frontale — Nagoya Grampus2:1
- 01.07.2023Nagoya Grampus — Kawasaki Frontale2:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Yokohama F.Marinos | 9 | 4 | +4 | 15 |
| 8 | Kawasaki Frontale | 9 | 3 | +3 | 13 |
| 9 | Fagiano Okayama FC | 9 | 4 | 0 | 13 |
| 14 | V-Varen Nagasaki | 9 | 2 | -5 | 9 |
| 15 | Nagoya Grampus | 9 | 3 | -6 | 9 |
| 16 | Kyoto Sanga FC | 9 | 2 | -5 | 8 |
Next matches
- Cerezo OsakaKawasaki Frontale17 October · J1 League3627372The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.1
- Kashiwa ReysolNagoya Grampus17 October · J1 League5625181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
J1 League on the same day
- 3528372The most likely outcome did not happen: 21:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 0:2.2.8
- 353036XThe most likely outcome did not happen: X1:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 1:1.2.4
- 1425612The most likely outcome came true: 20:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 1:2.2.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 46% will not happen in roughly 54 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →