UEFA Nations League, round 3, League C, group 3 · Friday, 2 October, MSK · Astana Arena
Kazakhstan — Moldova
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
In short
Final score 1:2: the model's most likely outcome, Kazakhstan to win (54%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 54% fails in about 46 matches out of 100 on average.
Kazakhstan are clear favourites: 54% against 20% for the opponent, draw 26%.
2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).
Over 2.5 goals — 51%, both teams to score — 53%.
Why
- National-team Elo: Kazakhstan 1426, Moldova 1268 — Kazakhstan clearly rated higher.
- Kazakhstan: only 3 days of rest since the previous match.
Facts
- Kazakhstan: winless in 4; Moldova: winless in 5.
- Last 3 meetings: Kazakhstan 2 wins, Moldova 1.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Kazakhstan — Moldova What is xG? | 1.7–1.0 | |
| Kazakhstan not to lose | 80% | |
| Moldova not to lose | 46% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 53% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 47% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 51% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 49% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Kazakhstan
- Kazakhstan goals
- Moldova goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 29.09away · Slovakia1:2
- 26.09away · Faroe Islands1:1
- 09.06away · Hungary1:3
- 06.06away · Armenia1:1
- 31.03Comoros1:0
- 29.09Faroe Islands1:1
- 26.09away · Slovakia0:2
- 09.06away · Armenia1:1
- 05.06Bulgaria2:2
- 30.03away · Cyprus2:3
Head to head
- 29.03.2022Kazakhstan — Moldova0:1
- 24.03.2022Moldova — Kazakhstan1:2
- 21.02.2019Kazakhstan — Moldova1:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Promotion to the league above | Slovakia | 4 | 3 | +7 | 10 |
| 2, Promotion play-offs | Faroe Islands | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | Moldova | 4 | 1 | -5 | 4 |
| 4 | Kazakhstan | 4 | 0 | -2 | 2 |
Next matches
- KazakhstanFaroe Islands6 October · UEFA Nations League383131XThe most likely outcome came true: X2:2Final score 2:2. Model's score: 1:1.2.1
- MoldovaSlovakia6 October · UEFA Nations League920712The most likely outcome came true: 20:4Final score 0:4. Model's score: 0:2.2.6
UEFA Nations League on the same day
- 3826361The most likely outcome came true: 12:0Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:1.3.2
- 2228502The most likely outcome came true: 21:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:1.2.5
- 6520151The most likely outcome came true: 13:0Final score 3:0. Model's score: 2:1.3.5
- 5923181The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 2:1.3.1
- 4628261The most likely outcome came true: 11:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 1:0, exactly right.2.7
- 4630241The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:3Final score 0:3. Model's score: 1:0.2.3
- 2424522The most likely outcome did not happen: 21:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 1:2.3.1
- 5226231The most likely outcome came true: 16:0Final score 6:0. Model's score: 2:1.2.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 54% will not happen in roughly 46 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →