Nigeria NPFL, round 11 · Sunday, 1 November, MSK
Kwara United — Bendel Insurance
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 1 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Kwara United are clear favourites: 56% against 18% for the opponent, draw 26%.
2.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.1).
Over 2.5 goals — 38%, both teams to score — 40%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Kwara United are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Kwara United — No. 12, 10 pts; Bendel Insurance — No. 7, 12 pts. A gap of 2 pts.
- Last 5 meetings: Kwara United 0 wins, Bendel Insurance 4, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Kwara United — Bendel Insurance What is xG? | 1.5–0.7 | |
| Kwara United not to lose | 82% | |
| Bendel Insurance not to lose | 44% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 40% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 60% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 38% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 62% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Kwara United
- Kwara United goals
- Bendel Insurance goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10away · Ikorodu City0:2
- 04.10Ranchers Bees2:1
- 27.09away · Kun Khalifat0:1
- 23.09Nasarawa United2:1
- 20.09away · Warri Wolves FC0:1
- 11.10away · Sporting Lagos1:2
- 04.10Barau4:1
- 27.09away · Abia Warriors0:3
- 23.09Ikorodu City2:1
- 19.09away · Ranchers Bees1:2
Head to head
- 14.01.2026Kwara United — Bendel Insurance0:1
- 27.12.2025Bendel Insurance — Kwara United2:0
- 13.04.2025Kwara United — Bendel Insurance0:1
- 23.11.2024Bendel Insurance — Kwara United3:1
- 07.04.2024Kwara United — Bendel Insurance1:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Ikorodu City | 8 | 3 | +3 | 12 |
| 7 | Bendel Insurance | 8 | 4 | +1 | 12 |
| 8 | Sporting Lagos | 8 | 3 | +1 | 12 |
| 11 | Nasarawa United | 8 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 12 | Kwara United | 8 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 13 | Warri Wolves FC | 8 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
Nigeria NPFL on the same day
- EnyimbaKun Khalifatpreliminary6122161The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.5
- Inter LagosRanchers Beespreliminary373232XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.0
- Kano PillarsNasarawa Unitedpreliminary5826171The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.1
- Katsina UnitedSporting Lagospreliminary6024161The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.3
- Niger TornadoesBaraupreliminary4731221The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:01.8
- Plateau UnitedWarri Wolves FCpreliminary6921111The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.2
- Rivers United FCEnugu Rangerspreliminary6423131The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.1
- Shooting StarsAbia Warriorspreliminary6224141The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 56% will not happen in roughly 44 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →