EFL Cup (Carabao Cup), round 4 · Wednesday, 28 October, MSK
Liverpool — Chelsea
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 28 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Liverpool are clear favourites: 48% against 26% for the opponent, draw 26%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.0).
Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 56%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Liverpool are about 0.6 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Liverpool — Chelsea What is xG? | 1.6–1.1 | |
| Liverpool not to lose | 74% | |
| Chelsea not to lose | 52% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 44% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 53% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 47% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Liverpool
- Liverpool goals
- Chelsea goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 11.10Manchester City0:3
- 20.09away · AFC Bournemouth1:0
- 15.09Tottenham Hotspur3:1
- 12.09Fulham0:0
- 09.09Atlético Madrid2:1
- 10.10AFC Bournemouth5:1
- 18.09away · Brentford0:3
- 12.09Hull City2:2
- 09.09Leeds United6:3
- 06.09away · Arsenal1:2
Head to head
- 09.05.2026Liverpool — Chelsea1:1
- 04.10.2025Chelsea — Liverpool2:1
- 04.05.2025Chelsea — Liverpool3:1
- 20.10.2024Liverpool — Chelsea2:1
- 25.02.2024Chelsea — Liverpool0:1
EFL Cup on the same day
- Manchester CityBrighton & Hove Albionpreliminary6022171The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
- SunderlandBrentfordpreliminary2325522The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.8
- FulhamCrystal Palacepreliminary3327412The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.8
- AFC BournemouthAston Villapreliminary3727361The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 48% will not happen in roughly 52 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →