Tanzania Premier League, round 7 · Friday, 9 October, MSK
Mbeya City — Kagera Sugar
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In short
Final score 1:3: the model's most likely outcome, Mbeya City to win (58%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 58% fails in about 42 matches out of 100 on average.
Mbeya City are clear favourites: 58% against 16% for the opponent, draw 26%.
2.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.2).
Over 2.5 goals — 40%, both teams to score — 42%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Mbeya City are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Mbeya City — Kagera Sugar What is xG? | 1.6–0.7 | |
| Mbeya City not to lose | 84% | |
| Kagera Sugar not to lose | 42% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 42% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 58% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 40% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 60% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Mbeya City
- Mbeya City goals
- Kagera Sugar goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 12.09away · Polisi Tanzania FC0:2
- 04.09away · TRA United0:0
- 28.08away · Fountain Gate FC2:0
- 23.08Mashujaa2:1
- 19.08Dodoma Jiji FC2:0
- 13.09Fountain Gate FC1:1
- 31.08Azam FC0:2
- 27.08away · Mashujaa1:2
- 22.08away · Geita Gold FC2:6
- 19.08Singida Black Stars1:1
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Polisi Tanzania FC | 7 | 3 | +1 | 10 |
| 8 | Mbeya City | 7 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 9 | JKT Tanzania | 7 | 3 | -2 | 10 |
| 13 | TRA United | 7 | 1 | -1 | 6 |
| 14 | Kagera Sugar | 7 | 1 | -7 | 5 |
| 15 | Pamba Jiji | 7 | 1 | -5 | 4 |
Next matches
- Kagera SugarPolisi Tanzania FC17 October · Tanzania Premier League3228402The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.0
- JKT TanzaniaMbeya City18 October · Tanzania Premier League5328191The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.1
Tanzania Premier League on the same day
- 333136XThe most likely outcome did not happen: X1:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 1:1.2.1
- 2930422The most likely outcome did not happen: 21:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 0:1.2.5
- 2030502The most likely outcome came true: 20:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 0:1.2.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 58% will not happen in roughly 42 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →