UEFA Nations League, round 2, League C, group 3 · Tuesday, 29 September, MSK · Stadionul Zimbru
Moldova — Faroe Islands
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In short
Final score 1:1: the model's most likely outcome, Faroe Islands to win (42%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 42% fails in about 58 matches out of 100 on average.
Faroe Islands are slightly stronger: 42% against 28%, draw 30%.
2.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).
Over 2.5 goals — 42%, both teams to score — 48%.
Why
- National-team Elo: Moldova 1267, Faroe Islands 1383 — Faroe Islands rated higher.
- Moldova: only 3 days of rest since the previous match.
Facts
- Moldova: winless in 5.
- Last 4 meetings: Moldova 1 win, Faroe Islands 1, 2 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Moldova — Faroe Islands What is xG? | 1.0–1.3 | |
| Moldova not to lose | 58% | |
| Faroe Islands not to lose | 72% | |
| No draw | 70% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 48% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 52% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 42% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 58% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Moldova
- Moldova goals
- Faroe Islands goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 26.09away · Slovakia0:2
- 09.06away · Armenia1:1
- 05.06Bulgaria2:2
- 30.03away · Cyprus2:3
- 26.03Lithuania0:2
- 26.09Kazakhstan1:1
- 09.06away · Latvia1:0
- 06.06away · Estonia0:1
- 28.03away · San Marino2:1
- 18.11Kazakhstan1:0
Head to head
- 10.09.2023Faroe Islands — Moldova0:1
- 24.03.2023Moldova — Faroe Islands1:1
- 07.09.2021Faroe Islands — Moldova2:1
- 25.03.2021Moldova — Faroe Islands1:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Promotion to the league above | Slovakia | 4 | 3 | +7 | 10 |
| 2, Promotion play-offs | Faroe Islands | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | Moldova | 4 | 1 | -5 | 4 |
| 4 | Kazakhstan | 4 | 0 | -2 | 2 |
Next matches
- KazakhstanMoldova2 October · UEFA Nations League5426201The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 1:0.2.7
- Faroe IslandsSlovakia2 October · UEFA Nations League1325632The most likely outcome did not happen: 21:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 0:1.2.5
UEFA Nations League on the same day
- 5725191The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 2:0.2.8
- 919722The most likely outcome came true: 20:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 0:2, exactly right.3.0
- 771671The most likely outcome came true: 14:1Final score 4:1. Model's score: 2:0.3.1
- 1925562The most likely outcome came true: 20:3Final score 0:3. Model's score: 0:1.2.8
- 5428181The most likely outcome came true: 12:0Final score 2:0. Model's score: 1:0.2.3
- 17932The most likely outcome came true: 20:3Final score 0:3. Model's score: 0:3, exactly right.3.3
- 7021101The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.2.7
- 4629251The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 1:0.2.4
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 42% will not happen in roughly 58 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →