UEFA Nations League, round 3, League C, group 3 · Friday, 2 October, MSK · Tórsvøllur
Faroe Islands — Slovakia
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In short
Final score 1:1: the model's most likely outcome, Slovakia to win (63%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 63% fails in about 37 matches out of 100 on average.
Slovakia are clear favourites: 63% against 13% for the opponent, draw 25%.
2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).
Over 2.5 goals — 45%, both teams to score — 42%.
Why
- National-team Elo: Faroe Islands 1382, Slovakia 1675 — Slovakia clearly rated higher.
- Faroe Islands: only 3 days of rest since the previous match.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Faroe Islands — Slovakia What is xG? | 0.7–1.8 | |
| Faroe Islands not to lose | 37% | |
| Slovakia not to lose | 87% | |
| No draw | 75% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 42% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 58% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 45% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 55% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Faroe Islands
- Faroe Islands goals
- Slovakia goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 29.09away · Moldova1:1
- 26.09Kazakhstan1:1
- 09.06away · Latvia1:0
- 06.06away · Estonia0:1
- 28.03away · San Marino2:1
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Promotion to the league above | Slovakia | 4 | 3 | +7 | 10 |
| 2, Promotion play-offs | Faroe Islands | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | Moldova | 4 | 1 | -5 | 4 |
| 4 | Kazakhstan | 4 | 0 | -2 | 2 |
Next matches
- KazakhstanFaroe Islands6 October · UEFA Nations League383131XThe most likely outcome came true: X2:2Final score 2:2. Model's score: 1:1.2.1
- MoldovaSlovakia6 October · UEFA Nations League920712The most likely outcome came true: 20:4Final score 0:4. Model's score: 0:2.2.6
UEFA Nations League on the same day
- 5426201The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 1:0.2.7
- 3826361The most likely outcome came true: 12:0Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:1.3.2
- 2228502The most likely outcome came true: 21:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:1.2.5
- 6520151The most likely outcome came true: 13:0Final score 3:0. Model's score: 2:1.3.5
- 5923181The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 2:1.3.1
- 4628261The most likely outcome came true: 11:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 1:0, exactly right.2.7
- 4630241The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:3Final score 0:3. Model's score: 1:0.2.3
- 2424522The most likely outcome did not happen: 21:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 1:2.3.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 63% will not happen in roughly 37 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →