UEFA Champions League, round 3 · Tuesday, 20 October, MSK
Napoli — Bodø/Glimt
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In short
Evenly matched: Napoli 37%, Bodø/Glimt 37%, draw 27%.
The model expects few goals: 2.8 in total, against a competition average of 3.5.
Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 57%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Bodø/Glimt are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Napoli — Bodø/Glimt What is xG? | 1.4–1.4 | |
| Napoli not to lose | 63% | |
| Bodø/Glimt not to lose | 63% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 57% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 43% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 53% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 47% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Napoli
- Napoli goals
- Bodø/Glimt goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 13.10away · Villarreal1:3
- 10.10Frosinone3:0
- 20.09away · Fiorentina1:1
- 13.09Bologna1:0
- 09.09Arsenal0:1
- 10.10Kristiansund3:1
- 20.09away · Brann1:2
- 14.09Sandefjord3:2
- 10.09away · Bayern München0:5
- 04.09away · Fredrikstad2:1
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Slavia Prague | 2 | 0 | -3 | 0 |
| 31 | Napoli | 2 | 0 | -3 | 0 |
| 32 | Lille | 2 | 0 | -4 | 0 |
| 35 | Slovan Bratislava | 1 | 0 | -5 | 0 |
| 36 | Bodø/Glimt | 1 | 0 | -5 | 0 |
Champions League on the same day
- 751691The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.3
- 1218702The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:33.1
- 4426301The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
- 6022171The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:03.0
- 761581The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.3
- 91721The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:04.1
- 5225231The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:02.9
- 4626281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 37% will not happen in roughly 63 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →