UEFA Champions League, round 3 · Tuesday, 20 October, MSK
Liverpool — Villarreal
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 20 October
In short
Liverpool are clear favourites: 62% against 16% for the opponent, draw 22%.
The model expects few goals: 3.0 in total, against a competition average of 3.5.
Over 2.5 goals — 57%, both teams to score — 54%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Liverpool are about 0.6 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Liverpool — Villarreal What is xG? | 2.0–0.9 | |
| Liverpool not to lose | 84% | |
| Villarreal not to lose | 38% | |
| No draw | 78% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 54% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 46% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 57% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 43% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Liverpool
- Liverpool goals
- Villarreal goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 11.10Manchester City0:3
- 20.09away · AFC Bournemouth1:0
- 15.09Tottenham Hotspur3:1
- 12.09Fulham0:0
- 09.09Atlético Madrid2:1
- 13.10Napoli3:1
- 10.10away · Real Madrid0:1
- 20.09Levante3:1
- 17.09away · Málaga3:1
- 14.09Real Betis1:2
Head to head
- 03.05.2022Villarreal — Liverpool2:3
- 27.04.2022Liverpool — Villarreal2:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Manchester City | 1 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 10, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Villarreal | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 11, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Aston Villa | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 14, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 15, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Liverpool | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 16, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Real Madrid | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
Champions League on the same day
- 741791The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.3
- 1118712The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:33.2
- 4726271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
- 761581The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.3
- 91721The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:04.1
- 5125241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:02.8
- 3827351The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- 4826271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 62% will not happen in roughly 38 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →