UEFA Champions League, round 3 · Tuesday, 20 October, MSK
FC Porto — PSV Eindhoven
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 20 October
In short
FC Porto are clear favourites: 53% against 23% for the opponent, draw 24%.
The model expects few goals: 2.9 in total, against a competition average of 3.5.
Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 56%.
Why
- By the strength ratings FC Porto are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: FC Porto — No. 29, 0 pts; PSV Eindhoven — No. 26, 1 pt. A gap of 1 pt.
- FC Porto: 3 wins in a row.
- Days of rest before the match: FC Porto 10, PSV Eindhoven 7.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: FC Porto — PSV Eindhoven What is xG? | 1.8–1.1 | |
| FC Porto not to lose | 77% | |
| PSV Eindhoven not to lose | 47% | |
| No draw | 76% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 44% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 55% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 45% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap FC Porto
- FC Porto goals
- PSV Eindhoven goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10away · Marítimo2:1
- 20.09Benfica3:1
- 12.09away · Casa Pia AC4:1
- 08.09Manchester City0:2
- 04.09Moreirense2:1
- 13.10away · RB Leipzig0:1
- 09.10SC Heerenveen2:0
- 20.09away · FC Twente2:3
- 13.09Sparta Rotterdam4:1
- 10.09Shakhtar Donetsk1:1
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 26 | PSV Eindhoven | 2 | 0 | -1 | 1 |
| 27 | Viking | 2 | 0 | -2 | 1 |
| 28 | Inter | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 |
| 29 | FC Porto | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 |
| 30 | Slavia Prague | 2 | 0 | -3 | 0 |
Champions League on the same day
- 7118111The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.2
- 815772The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:43.4
- 4426301The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
- 6321161The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:03.0
- 821261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 4:03.6
- 89831The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:04.0
- 5424221The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
- 4226311The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 53% will not happen in roughly 47 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →