UEFA Champions League, round 3 · Tuesday, 20 October, MSK
Sabah FK — Borussia Dortmund
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 20 October
In short
Borussia Dortmund are clear favourites: 77% against 8% for the opponent, draw 15%.
3.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.5).
Over 2.5 goals — 65%, both teams to score — 50%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Borussia Dortmund are about 1.1 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Sabah FK — No. 21, 3 pts; Borussia Dortmund — No. 14, 3 pts.
- Borussia Dortmund: unbeaten in 5.
- Days of rest before the match: Sabah FK 7, Borussia Dortmund 11.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Sabah FK — Borussia Dortmund What is xG? | 0.8–2.6 | |
| Sabah FK not to lose | 23% | |
| Borussia Dortmund not to lose | 92% | |
| No draw | 85% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 50% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 50% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 65% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 35% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Sabah FK
- Sabah FK goals
- Borussia Dortmund goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month
Form
- 09.10Werder Bremen2:2
- 19.09away · VfB Stuttgart1:0
- 12.09Paderborn3:0
- 08.09Villarreal3:2
- 05.09away · Hoffenheim3:2
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Real Betis | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 14, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 15, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Liverpool | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 20, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | RB Leipzig | 2 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 21, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Sabah FK | 2 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 22, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Roma | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Champions League on the same day
- 7018111The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.2
- 4426301The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
- 6321161The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:03.0
- 831261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 4:03.6
- 89831The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:04.0
- 5224231The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:02.9
- 5424221The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
- 4226321The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 77% will not happen in roughly 23 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →