Super League Greece, round 6 · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · Stadio Georgios Karaiskákis
Olympiacos — Panathinaikos
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1:0Came true
In short
Final score 1:0: the model's most likely outcome, Olympiacos to win (64%), came true.
Olympiacos are clear favourites: 64% against 13% for the opponent, draw 23%.
2.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).
Over 2.5 goals — 45%, both teams to score — 45%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Olympiacos are about 0.9 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Olympiacos — Panathinaikos What is xG? | 1.7–0.7 | |
| Olympiacos not to lose | 87% | |
| Panathinaikos not to lose | 36% | |
| No draw | 77% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 45% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 55% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 45% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 55% |
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- Handicap Olympiacos
- Olympiacos goals
- Panathinaikos goals
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Form
- 20.09away · Levadiakos1:0
- 16.09Jagiellonia Białystok2:1
- 12.09OFI Crete0:1
- 05.09away · NFC Volos1:1
- 30.08away · Asteras Tripolis1:0
- 20.09away · Kalamata1:0
- 13.09Panetolikos3:0
- 10.09Kifisia FC3:1
- 06.09PAOK Thessaloniki3:1
- 31.08away · Levadiakos2:0
Head to head
- 13.05.2026Olympiacos — Panathinaikos1:0
- 19.04.2026Panathinaikos — Olympiacos0:2
- 08.02.2026Olympiacos — Panathinaikos0:1
- 21.09.2025Panathinaikos — Olympiacos1:1
- 11.05.2025Panathinaikos — Olympiacos0:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panathinaikos | 6 | 5 | +9 | 15 |
| 2 | AEK Athens | 6 | 4 | +13 | 14 |
| 3 | Olympiacos | 6 | 4 | +3 | 13 |
| 4 | PAOK Thessaloniki | 6 | 4 | +5 | 12 |
Next matches
- PanathinaikosBorac Banja Luka15 October · Conference League7218111The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:03.2
- MarseilleOlympiacos15 October · Europa League3627382The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.8
Greek Super League on the same day
- 343432XThe most likely outcome did not happen: X2:0Final score 2:0. Model's score: 0:0.2.2
- 5228201The most likely outcome came true: 12:0Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.2.4
- 6224131The most likely outcome came true: 13:2Final score 3:2. Model's score: 2:1.2.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 64% will not happen in roughly 36 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →