Super League Greece, round 6 · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · Stadio Georgios Karaiskákis

Olympiacos — Panathinaikos

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Model prediction and result

1:0Came true
Olympiacos64%
Draw23%
Panathinaikos13%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 1:0: the model's most likely outcome, Olympiacos to win (64%), came true.

Olympiacos are clear favourites: 64% against 13% for the opponent, draw 23%.

2.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).

Over 2.5 goals — 45%, both teams to score — 45%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Olympiacos are about 0.9 goals per match stronger.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Olympiacos — Panathinaikos What is xG?1.7–0.7
Olympiacos not to lose87%
Panathinaikos not to lose36%
No draw77%
Both teams to score: yes45%
Both teams to score: no55%
Total over 2.545%
Total under 2.555%

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  • Handicap Olympiacos
  • Olympiacos goals
  • Panathinaikos goals
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  • Full score grid
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Form

Olympiacos

  • 20.09away · Levadiakos1:0
  • 16.09Jagiellonia Białystok2:1
  • 12.09OFI Crete0:1
  • 05.09away · NFC Volos1:1
  • 30.08away · Asteras Tripolis1:0

Panathinaikos

  • 20.09away · Kalamata1:0
  • 13.09Panetolikos3:0
  • 10.09Kifisia FC3:1
  • 06.09PAOK Thessaloniki3:1
  • 31.08away · Levadiakos2:0

Head to head

  • 13.05.2026Olympiacos — Panathinaikos1:0
  • 19.04.2026Panathinaikos — Olympiacos0:2
  • 08.02.2026Olympiacos — Panathinaikos0:1
  • 21.09.2025Panathinaikos — Olympiacos1:1
  • 11.05.2025Panathinaikos — Olympiacos0:1

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
1Panathinaikos650112–3+915
2AEK Athens642016–3+1314
3Olympiacos64115–2+313
4PAOK Thessaloniki640213–8+512

Season 2026/27

Full table

Next matches

  • PanathinaikosBorac Banja Luka15 October · Conference League
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:03.2
  • MarseilleOlympiacos15 October · Europa League
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.8

Greek Super League on the same day

  • XThe most likely outcome did not happen: XFinal score 2:0. Model's score: 0:0.2.2
  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.2.4
  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 3:2. Model's score: 2:1.2.8

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 64% will not happen in roughly 36 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →