Brazilian Serie B, round 35 · Saturday, 24 October, MSK
Operário-PR — Athletic Club MG
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 24 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Operário-PR are clear favourites: 47% against 26% for the opponent, draw 27%.
2.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 42%, both teams to score — 48%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Operário-PR are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Operário-PR — No. 9, 48 pts; Athletic Club MG — No. 13, 43 pts. A gap of 5 pts.
- Operário-PR: 3 defeats in a row; Athletic Club MG: winless in 5.
- Last 3 meetings: Operário-PR 1 win, Athletic Club MG 2.
- Days of rest before the match: Operário-PR 12, Athletic Club MG 10.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Operário-PR — Athletic Club MG What is xG? | 1.4–1.0 | |
| Operário-PR not to lose | 74% | |
| Athletic Club MG not to lose | 53% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 48% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 52% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 42% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 58% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Operário-PR
- Operário-PR goals
- Athletic Club MG goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 12.10Goiás0:2
- 08.10Botafogo SP1:2
- 03.10away · Juventude0:3
- 26.09Ceará2:2
- 23.09away · Criciúma2:0
- 14.10Londrina2:2
- 07.10away · Goiás1:2
- 02.10Sport Recife1:2
- 28.09away · Fortaleza2:2
- 20.09Botafogo SP1:1
Head to head
- 08.07.2026Athletic Club MG — Operário-PR0:1
- 09.10.2025Operário-PR — Athletic Club MG1:4
- 15.06.2025Athletic Club MG — Operário-PR2:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Sport Recife | 33 | 13 | +10 | 51 |
| 9 | Operário-PR | 33 | 13 | -1 | 48 |
| 10 | Goiás | 33 | 14 | -6 | 48 |
| 12 | São Bernardo | 33 | 12 | +10 | 46 |
| 13 | Athletic Club MG | 33 | 10 | +1 | 43 |
| 14 | Náutico | 33 | 11 | -3 | 42 |
Brasileirao Serie B on the same day
- Sport RecifeCriciúmapreliminary3930321The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.3
- AvaíBotafogo SPpreliminary4130291The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.1
- São BernardoVila Novapreliminary3329382The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.3
- Atlético-GONovorizontinopreliminary2729452The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 47% will not happen in roughly 53 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →