Brazilian Serie B, round 32 · Thursday, 8 October, 01:30 MSK · Estádio Germano Krüger

Operário-PR — Botafogo SP

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Model prediction and result

1:2Missed

Operário-PR52%

Draw28%

Botafogo SP21%

Model estimate at 00:52 MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 1:2: the model's most likely outcome, Operário-PR to win (52%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 52% fails in about 48 matches out of 100 on average.

Operário-PR are clear favourites: 52% against 21% for the opponent, draw 28%.

2.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.3).

Over 2.5 goals — 38%, both teams to score — 43%.

Why

By the strength ratings Operário-PR are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Operário-PR — Botafogo SP What is xG?		1.4–0.8
Operário-PR not to lose		79%
Botafogo SP not to lose		48%
No draw		72%
Both teams to score: yes		43%
Both teams to score: no		57%
Total over 2.5		38%
Total under 2.5		62%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Operário-PR
Operário-PR goals
Botafogo SP goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Form

Operário-PR

03.10away · Juventude0:3
26.09Ceará2:2
23.09away · Criciúma2:0
16.09away · Náutico3:3
10.09CRB3:0

Botafogo SP

04.10Vila Nova0:1
30.09Ponte Preta2:0
20.09away · Athletic Club MG1:1
15.09Goiás1:3
10.09Novorizontino1:3

Head to head

15.06.2026Botafogo SP — Operário-PR2:1
19.09.2025Botafogo SP — Operário-PR1:1
17.05.2025Operário-PR — Botafogo SP3:0
13.10.2024Botafogo SP — Operário-PR0:0
22.06.2024Operário-PR — Botafogo SP0:1

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
8	Sport Recife	33	13	12	8	45–35	+10	51
9	Operário-PR	33	13	9	11	44–45	-1	48
10	Goiás	33	14	6	13	34–40	-6	48
15	Ceará	33	11	9	13	35–40	-5	42
16	Botafogo SP	33	11	8	14	37–38	-1	41
17, Relegation	Avaí	33	10	6	17	33–43	-10	36

Season 2026

Full table

Next matches

00:30
Operário-PRGoiás12 October · Brasileirao Serie B
432928
1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 0:2. Model's score: 2:1.2.4
03:00
Botafogo SPCeará13 October · Brasileirao Serie B
432928
1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 1:0. Model's score: 1:0, exactly right.2.2

Brasileirao Serie B on the same day

01:30
AvaíLondrina
472825
1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:1, exactly right.2.3
02:30
América-MGFortaleza
302842
2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 0:1. Model's score: 0:2.2.3
02:30
CRBAtlético-GO
472627
1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 3:1. Model's score: 2:1.2.6
02:30
Vila NovaCuiabá
383230
XThe most likely outcome came true: XFinal score 0:0. Model's score: 1:1.1.9

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 52% will not happen in roughly 48 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →