Major League Soccer (MLS), round 31 · Sunday, 25 October, MSK
Orlando City — New York City FC
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 25 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Orlando City are slightly stronger: 42% against 30%, draw 28%.
3.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 63%, both teams to score — 68%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Facts
- League table: Orlando City — No. 15, 37 pts; New York City FC — No. 19, 33 pts. A gap of 4 pts.
- Last 5 meetings: Orlando City 0 wins, New York City FC 4, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Orlando City — New York City FC What is xG? | 1.8–1.5 | |
| Orlando City not to lose | 70% | |
| New York City FC not to lose | 58% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 68% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 32% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 63% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 37% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Orlando City
- Orlando City goals
- New York City FC goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 11.10Columbus Crew3:2
- 27.09away · Philadelphia Union2:4
- 20.09away · New England Revolution2:4
- 17.09away · Columbus Crew1:2
- 13.09Toronto FC3:0
- 10.10away · Chicago Fire FC1:2
- 27.09away · Atlanta United2:2
- 19.09Red Bull New York0:1
- 13.09away · Real Salt Lake2:0
- 10.09New England Revolution1:2
Head to head
- 07.03.2026New York City FC — Orlando City5:0
- 17.07.2025Orlando City — New York City FC1:2
- 09.03.2025New York City FC — Orlando City2:1
- 21.07.2024Orlando City — New York City FC1:1
- 29.06.2024New York City FC — Orlando City4:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14, Wild-card game, 8th v 9th, for a playoff place | Colorado Rapids | 28 | 11 | 0 | 37 |
| 15, Playoffs: top 7 in each conference | Orlando City | 28 | 11 | -15 | 37 |
| 16, Wild-card game, 8th v 9th, for a playoff place | FC Cincinnati | 27 | 9 | -7 | 36 |
| 18, Wild-card game, 8th v 9th, for a playoff place | Red Bull New York | 28 | 10 | -14 | 36 |
| 19 | New York City FC | 28 | 8 | +4 | 33 |
| 20 | Portland Timbers | 28 | 9 | -3 | 33 |
MLS on the same day
- Red Bull New YorkInter Miami CFpreliminary2625502The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:33.9
- Atlanta UnitedChicago Fire FCpreliminary3228402The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.2
- DC UnitedFC Cincinnatipreliminary3926351The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.4
- Philadelphia UnionNew England Revolutionpreliminary6023181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.3
- Colorado RapidsVancouver Whitecapspreliminary3028422The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.3
- FC DallasSan Jose Earthquakespreliminary4727261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.2
- Houston Dynamo FCMinnesota Unitedpreliminary4129301The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
- Sporting Kansas CityAustin FCpreliminary4526291The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.2
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 42% will not happen in roughly 58 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →