Major League Soccer (MLS), round 31 · Sunday, 25 October, MSK
FC Dallas — San Jose Earthquakes
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 25 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
FC Dallas are clear favourites: 47% against 26% for the opponent, draw 27%.
3.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 62%, both teams to score — 66%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Facts
- League table: FC Dallas — No. 6, 47 pts; San Jose Earthquakes — No. 7, 46 pts. A gap of 1 pt.
- San Jose Earthquakes: unbeaten in 5.
- Last 5 meetings: FC Dallas 2 wins, San Jose Earthquakes 2, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: FC Dallas — San Jose Earthquakes What is xG? | 1.8–1.4 | |
| FC Dallas not to lose | 74% | |
| San Jose Earthquakes not to lose | 53% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 66% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 34% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 62% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 38% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap FC Dallas
- FC Dallas goals
- San Jose Earthquakes goals
- Corners and cards
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Form
- 11.10away · Charlotte FC2:3
- 27.09Los Angeles FC1:0
- 20.09Austin FC0:0
- 13.09Portland Timbers2:1
- 10.09away · Minnesota United2:1
- 11.10away · Colorado Rapids1:1
- 27.09Portland Timbers3:1
- 20.09Los Angeles FC2:2
- 13.09Houston Dynamo FC1:0
- 10.09away · San Diego FC3:2
Head to head
- 17.05.2026San Jose Earthquakes — FC Dallas2:3
- 17.07.2025San Jose Earthquakes — FC Dallas2:2
- 26.06.2025FC Dallas — San Jose Earthquakes2:4
- 03.10.2024San Jose Earthquakes — FC Dallas3:2
- 25.02.2024FC Dallas — San Jose Earthquakes2:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5, Playoffs: top 7 in each conference | Chicago Fire FC | 28 | 14 | +11 | 48 |
| 6, Playoffs: top 7 in each conference | FC Dallas | 28 | 13 | +7 | 47 |
| 7, Playoffs: top 7 in each conference | San Jose Earthquakes | 28 | 13 | +10 | 46 |
| 8, Playoffs: top 7 in each conference | Charlotte FC | 28 | 13 | +10 | 46 |
MLS on the same day
- Red Bull New YorkInter Miami CFpreliminary2625502The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:33.9
- Atlanta UnitedChicago Fire FCpreliminary3228402The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.2
- DC UnitedFC Cincinnatipreliminary3926351The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.4
- Orlando CityNew York City FCpreliminary4228301The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.3
- Philadelphia UnionNew England Revolutionpreliminary6023181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.3
- Colorado RapidsVancouver Whitecapspreliminary3028422The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.3
- Houston Dynamo FCMinnesota Unitedpreliminary4129301The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
- Sporting Kansas CityAustin FCpreliminary4526291The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.2
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 47% will not happen in roughly 53 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →