Bundesliga, round 5 · Saturday, 10 October, MSK · Home Deluxe Arena
Paderborn — VfB Stuttgart
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0:2Came true
In short
Final score 0:2: the model's most likely outcome, VfB Stuttgart to win (57%), came true.
VfB Stuttgart are clear favourites: 57% against 16% for the opponent, draw 26%.
The model expects few goals: 2.8 in total, against a competition average of 3.3.
Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 56%.
Why
- By the strength ratings VfB Stuttgart are about 0.8 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Paderborn — VfB Stuttgart What is xG? | 1.0–1.8 | |
| Paderborn not to lose | 43% | |
| VfB Stuttgart not to lose | 84% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 44% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 53% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 47% |
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Form
- 20.09Hoffenheim3:1
- 12.09away · Borussia Dortmund0:3
- 05.09Freiburg0:1
- 29.08away · Mainz 050:0
- 23.08away · 1. FC Phönix Lübeck4:2
- 19.09Borussia Dortmund0:1
- 12.09away · Hoffenheim1:2
- 09.09Viking3:1
- 04.091. FC Köln4:1
- 28.08away · Bayern München1:5
Head to head
- 31.01.2023Paderborn — VfB Stuttgart1:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 1. FC Köln | 5 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | VfB Stuttgart | 5 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 12 | Hamburger SV | 5 | 2 | -10 | 6 |
| 14 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 5 | 1 | -7 | 5 |
| 15 | Paderborn | 5 | 1 | -4 | 4 |
| 16, Relegation play-off | Union Berlin | 5 | 1 | -12 | 4 |
Next matches
- Slovan BratislavaVfB Stuttgart14 October · Champions League1320672The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:33.1
- Werder BremenPaderborn17 October · Bundesliga4929221The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.6
Bundesliga on the same day
- 615802The most likely outcome did not happen: 22:2Final score 2:2. Model's score: 1:2.3.9
- 6222151The most likely outcome did not happen: 12:3Final score 2:3. Model's score: 2:0.3.4
- 2828442The most likely outcome came true: 23:4Final score 3:4. Model's score: 0:1.3.3
- 3227412The most likely outcome did not happen: 21:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 1:2.3.0
- 5525201The most likely outcome came true: 16:0Final score 6:0. Model's score: 2:1.3.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 57% will not happen in roughly 43 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →