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Bundesliga, round 5 · Saturday, 10 October, MSK · MEWA ARENA

Mainz 05 — Bayer Leverkusen

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Model prediction and result

3:4Came true
Mainz 0528%
Draw28%
Bayer Leverkusen44%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 3:4: the model's most likely outcome, Bayer Leverkusen to win (44%), came true.

Bayer Leverkusen are slightly stronger: 44% against 28%, draw 28%.

3.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.3).

Over 2.5 goals — 65%, both teams to score — 69%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Bayer Leverkusen are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Mainz 05 — Bayer Leverkusen What is xG?1.5–1.8
Mainz 05 not to lose56%
Bayer Leverkusen not to lose72%
No draw72%
Both teams to score: yes69%
Both teams to score: no31%
Total over 2.565%
Total under 2.535%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

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  • Handicap Mainz 05
  • Mainz 05 goals
  • Bayer Leverkusen goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Form

Mainz 05

  • 19.09away · Borussia Mönchengladbach4:3
  • 12.09Eintracht Frankfurt1:3
  • 06.09away · Hamburger SV5:0
  • 29.08Paderborn0:0
  • 23.08away · VfB Krieschow9:0

Bayer Leverkusen

  • 20.09RB Leipzig2:0
  • 16.09NK Celje2:0
  • 12.09away · Augsburg2:2
  • 05.09Union Berlin4:0
  • 29.08away · Elversberg2:3

Head to head

  • 28.02.2026Bayer Leverkusen — Mainz 051:1
  • 18.10.2025Mainz 05 — Bayer Leverkusen3:4
  • 17.05.2025Mainz 05 — Bayer Leverkusen2:2
  • 14.01.2025Bayer Leverkusen — Mainz 051:0
  • 23.02.2024Bayer Leverkusen — Mainz 052:1

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
3, Champions LeagueBayern München532016–4+1211
4, Champions LeagueBayer Leverkusen531114–8+610
5, Europa League or Conference LeagueRB Leipzig530215–5+109
7Werder Bremen522110–1008
8Mainz 05521213–10+37
9Elversberg52128–807

Season 2026/27

Full table

Next matches

  • Lech PoznańBayer Leverkusen15 October · Europa League
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
  • Schalke 04Mainz 0517 October · Bundesliga
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.1

Bundesliga on the same day

  • AugsburgBayern München
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 2:2. Model's score: 1:2.3.9
  • HoffenheimHamburger SV
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 2:3. Model's score: 2:0.3.4
  • PaderbornVfB Stuttgart
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 0:1.2.8
  • Union BerlinElversberg
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 1:0. Model's score: 1:2.3.0
  • RB LeipzigEintracht Frankfurt
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 6:0. Model's score: 2:1.3.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 44% will not happen in roughly 56 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →