Bundesliga, round 5 · Saturday, 10 October, MSK · WWK Arena
Augsburg — Bayern München
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In short
Final score 2:2: the model's most likely outcome, Bayern München to win (80%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 80% fails in about 20 matches out of 100 on average.
Bayern München are clear favourites: 80% against 6% for the opponent, draw 15%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.9 in total, against a competition average of 3.3.
Over 2.5 goals — 75%, both teams to score — 63%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Bayern München are about 1.7 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Augsburg — Bayern München What is xG? | 1.0–2.9 | |
| Augsburg not to lose | 20% | |
| Bayern München not to lose | 94% | |
| No draw | 85% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 63% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 37% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 75% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 25% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Augsburg
- Augsburg goals
- Bayern München goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 19.09away · Werder Bremen2:3
- 12.09Bayer Leverkusen2:2
- 06.09away · Eintracht Frankfurt4:1
- 30.08Schalke 043:0
- 22.08away · Energie Cottbus2:0
- 18.09Union Berlin7:0
- 13.09away · Elversberg2:1
- 10.09Bodø/Glimt5:0
- 05.09away · Schalke 040:0
- 02.09away · VfL Osnabrück4:1
Head to head
- 24.01.2026Bayern München — Augsburg1:2
- 30.08.2025Augsburg — Bayern München2:3
- 04.04.2025Augsburg — Bayern München1:3
- 22.11.2024Bayern München — Augsburg3:0
- 27.01.2024Augsburg — Bayern München2:3
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2, Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 5 | 4 | +7 | 13 |
| 3, Champions League | Bayern München | 5 | 3 | +12 | 11 |
| 4, Champions League | Bayer Leverkusen | 5 | 3 | +6 | 10 |
| 5, Europa League or Conference League | RB Leipzig | 5 | 3 | +10 | 9 |
| 6, Europa League or Conference League | Augsburg | 5 | 2 | +5 | 8 |
| 7 | Werder Bremen | 5 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
Next matches
- VikingBayern München13 October · Champions League1219692The most likely outcome did not happen: 23:3Final score 3:3. Model's score: 0:3.3.1
- ElversbergAugsburg17 October · Bundesliga4328291The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.1
Bundesliga on the same day
- 6222151The most likely outcome did not happen: 12:3Final score 2:3. Model's score: 2:0.3.4
- 2828442The most likely outcome came true: 23:4Final score 3:4. Model's score: 0:1.3.3
- 1626572The most likely outcome came true: 20:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 0:1.2.8
- 3227412The most likely outcome did not happen: 21:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 1:2.3.0
- 5525201The most likely outcome came true: 16:0Final score 6:0. Model's score: 2:1.3.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 80% will not happen in roughly 20 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →