UEFA Champions League, round 3 · Tuesday, 20 October, MSK
Paris Saint-Germain — Barcelona
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 20 October
In short
Paris Saint-Germain are slightly stronger: 44% against 30%, draw 26%.
The model expects few goals: 2.8 in total, against a competition average of 3.5.
Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 57%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Paris Saint-Germain are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Paris Saint-Germain — Barcelona What is xG? | 1.6–1.2 | |
| Paris Saint-Germain not to lose | 70% | |
| Barcelona not to lose | 56% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 57% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 43% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 53% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 47% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Paris Saint-Germain
- Paris Saint-Germain goals
- Barcelona goals
- Corners and cards
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Form
- 10.10Le Mans3:1
- 20.09away · Marseille2:1
- 13.09away · Brest1:0
- 09.09Slovan Bratislava6:1
- 04.09Monaco1:2
- 13.10away · Galatasaray4:1
- 10.10Getafe3:0
- 19.09away · Sevilla3:1
- 16.09Racing Santander7:2
- 13.09away · Levante4:2
Head to head
- 01.10.2025Barcelona — Paris Saint-Germain1:2
- 16.04.2024Barcelona — Paris Saint-Germain1:4
- 10.04.2024Paris Saint-Germain — Barcelona2:3
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Straight to the round of 16 | Barcelona | 2 | 2 | +7 | 6 |
| 2, Straight to the round of 16 | Sporting CP | 2 | 2 | +4 | 6 |
| 4, Straight to the round of 16 | Bayern München | 2 | 1 | +5 | 4 |
| 5, Straight to the round of 16 | Paris Saint-Germain | 1 | 1 | +5 | 3 |
| 6, Straight to the round of 16 | Como | 1 | 1 | +3 | 3 |
Champions League on the same day
- 751691The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.3
- 1218702The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:33.1
- 6022171The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:03.0
- 761581The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.3
- 91721The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:04.1
- 5225231The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:02.9
- 3727371The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- 4626281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 44% will not happen in roughly 56 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →