Eredivisie (Netherlands), round 8 · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · MAC³PARK Stadion
PEC Zwolle — Cambuur
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In short
Final score 0:1: the model's most likely outcome, PEC Zwolle to win (39%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 39% fails in about 61 matches out of 100 on average.
Evenly matched: PEC Zwolle 39%, Cambuur 32%, draw 28%.
3.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 66%, both teams to score — 70%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Cambuur are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: PEC Zwolle — Cambuur What is xG? | 1.8–1.6 | |
| PEC Zwolle not to lose | 68% | |
| Cambuur not to lose | 61% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 70% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 30% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 66% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 34% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap PEC Zwolle
- PEC Zwolle goals
- Cambuur goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 18.09away · FC Groningen0:3
- 13.09Feyenoord0:7
- 04.09away · Sparta Rotterdam2:2
- 29.08NEC Nijmegen1:3
- 22.08away · SC Heerenveen2:0
- 19.09away · ADO Den Haag1:1
- 12.09NEC Nijmegen3:0
- 06.09away · Telstar2:2
- 30.08FC Twente1:4
- 23.08Feyenoord2:5
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | NEC Nijmegen | 8 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 12 | Cambuur | 8 | 2 | -8 | 8 |
| 13 | FC Utrecht | 8 | 2 | -11 | 8 |
| 15 | Telstar | 8 | 1 | -7 | 6 |
| 16, Relegation play-off | PEC Zwolle | 8 | 1 | -15 | 4 |
| 17, Relegation | ADO Den Haag | 8 | 0 | -10 | 3 |
Next matches
- PEC ZwolleGo Ahead Eagles18 October · Eredivisie3128412The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:33.3
- CambuurAZ Alkmaar18 October · Eredivisie1824582The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.4
Eredivisie on the same day
- 7019111The most likely outcome came true: 13:1Final score 3:1. Model's score: 3:1, exactly right.3.5
- 4729241The most likely outcome did not happen: 12:2Final score 2:2. Model's score: 1:0.2.8
- 383032XThe most likely outcome did not happen: X1:5Final score 1:5. Model's score: 1:1.3.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 39% will not happen in roughly 61 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →