Major League Soccer (MLS), round 31 · Sunday, 25 October, MSK
Philadelphia Union — New England Revolution
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 25 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Philadelphia Union are clear favourites: 60% against 18% for the opponent, draw 23%.
3.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 65%, both teams to score — 64%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Philadelphia Union are about 0.8 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Philadelphia Union — No. 12, 42 pts; New England Revolution — No. 9, 46 pts. A gap of 4 pts.
- Philadelphia Union: 5 wins in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Philadelphia Union 4 wins, New England Revolution 1.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Philadelphia Union — New England Revolution What is xG? | 2.1–1.2 | |
| Philadelphia Union not to lose | 82% | |
| New England Revolution not to lose | 40% | |
| No draw | 77% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 64% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 36% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 65% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 35% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Philadelphia Union
- Philadelphia Union goals
- New England Revolution goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month
Form
- 11.10Real Salt Lake2:1
- 27.09Orlando City4:2
- 20.09away · Sporting Kansas City4:3
- 14.09away · San Diego FC5:0
- 10.09FC Cincinnati5:0
- 11.10Seattle Sounders FC0:3
- 27.09away · Real Salt Lake0:3
- 20.09Orlando City4:2
- 14.09away · Chicago Fire FC2:1
- 10.09away · New York City FC2:1
Head to head
- 10.05.2026New England Revolution — Philadelphia Union2:1
- 20.09.2025Philadelphia Union — New England Revolution1:0
- 09.03.2025New England Revolution — Philadelphia Union0:2
- 18.07.2024Philadelphia Union — New England Revolution5:1
- 19.05.2024New England Revolution — Philadelphia Union0:3
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8, Playoffs: top 7 in each conference | Charlotte FC | 28 | 13 | +10 | 46 |
| 9, Playoffs: top 7 in each conference | New England Revolution | 28 | 14 | +6 | 46 |
| 10, Playoffs: top 7 in each conference | Houston Dynamo FC | 28 | 13 | +2 | 45 |
| 11, Playoffs: top 7 in each conference | Los Angeles FC | 29 | 11 | +13 | 42 |
| 12, Playoffs: top 7 in each conference | Philadelphia Union | 28 | 12 | +11 | 42 |
| 13, Playoffs: top 7 in each conference | Seattle Sounders FC | 28 | 11 | +3 | 41 |
MLS on the same day
- Red Bull New YorkInter Miami CFpreliminary2625502The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:33.9
- Atlanta UnitedChicago Fire FCpreliminary3228402The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.2
- DC UnitedFC Cincinnatipreliminary3926351The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.4
- Orlando CityNew York City FCpreliminary4228301The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.3
- Colorado RapidsVancouver Whitecapspreliminary3028422The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.1
- FC DallasSan Jose Earthquakespreliminary4727261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.1
- Houston Dynamo FCMinnesota Unitedpreliminary4129301The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
- Sporting Kansas CityAustin FCpreliminary4526291The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.2
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 60% will not happen in roughly 40 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →