Eredivisie (Netherlands), round 11 · Saturday, 31 October, MSK
PSV Eindhoven — Willem II
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 31 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
PSV Eindhoven are clear favourites: 92% against 2% for the opponent, draw 6%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 4.5 in total, against a competition average of 3.3.
Over 2.5 goals — 80%, both teams to score — 52%.
Why
- By the strength ratings PSV Eindhoven are about 2.0 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: PSV Eindhoven — No. 2, 19 pts; Willem II — No. 18, 2 pts. A gap of 17 pts.
- Willem II: 3 defeats in a row.
- Last 2 meetings: PSV Eindhoven 1 win, Willem II 0, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: PSV Eindhoven — Willem II What is xG? | 3.7–0.8 | |
| PSV Eindhoven not to lose | 98% | |
| Willem II not to lose | 8% | |
| No draw | 94% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 52% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 48% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 80% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 20% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap PSV Eindhoven
- PSV Eindhoven goals
- Willem II goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 13.10away · RB Leipzig0:1
- 09.10SC Heerenveen2:0
- 20.09away · FC Twente2:3
- 13.09Sparta Rotterdam4:1
- 10.09Shakhtar Donetsk1:1
- 11.10away · FC Utrecht1:3
- 19.09Fortuna Sittard0:1
- 15.09away · Ajax1:5
- 11.09away · AZ Alkmaar1:1
- 05.09Excelsior0:3
Head to head
- 08.02.2025PSV Eindhoven — Willem II1:1
- 28.09.2024Willem II — PSV Eindhoven0:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Champions League | Feyenoord | 8 | 6 | +20 | 20 |
| 2, Champions League qualifying | PSV Eindhoven | 8 | 6 | +16 | 19 |
| 3, Europa League or Conference League | AZ Alkmaar | 8 | 6 | +10 | 19 |
| 17, Relegation | ADO Den Haag | 8 | 0 | -10 | 3 |
| 18, Relegation | Willem II | 8 | 0 | -16 | 2 |
Eredivisie on the same day
- FeyenoordFortuna Sittardpreliminary861041The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:03.7
- SC HeerenveenNEC Nijmegenpreliminary4927241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.3
- AjaxAZ Alkmaarpreliminary5127221The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.3
- CambuurGo Ahead Eaglespreliminary2626472The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 2:33.4
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 92% will not happen in roughly 8 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →