UEFA Champions League, round 3 · Wednesday, 21 October, MSK
Real Madrid — RB Leipzig
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 21 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Real Madrid are clear favourites: 69% against 12% for the opponent, draw 19%.
The model expects few goals: 3.1 in total, against a competition average of 3.5.
Over 2.5 goals — 60%, both teams to score — 52%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Real Madrid are about 1.0 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Real Madrid — RB Leipzig What is xG? | 2.3–0.8 | |
| Real Madrid not to lose | 88% | |
| RB Leipzig not to lose | 31% | |
| No draw | 81% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 52% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 48% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 60% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 40% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Real Madrid
- Real Madrid goals
- RB Leipzig goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month
Form
- 10.10Villarreal1:0
- 20.09away · Atlético Madrid1:2
- 15.09away · Elche3:2
- 12.09Rayo Vallecano4:1
- 08.09Inter2:1
- 13.10PSV Eindhoven1:0
- 10.10Eintracht Frankfurt6:0
- 20.09away · Bayer Leverkusen0:2
- 13.09Hamburger SV5:0
- 10.09away · Como1:4
Head to head
- 06.03.2024Real Madrid — RB Leipzig1:1
- 13.02.2024RB Leipzig — Real Madrid0:1
- 25.10.2022RB Leipzig — Real Madrid3:2
- 14.09.2022Real Madrid — RB Leipzig2:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Liverpool | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 16, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Real Madrid | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 17, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | AEK Athens | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 19, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Lens | 2 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 20, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | RB Leipzig | 2 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 21, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Sabah FK | 2 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
Champions League on the same day
- LilleGalatasaraypreliminary4626281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- ComoManchester Unitedpreliminary5524211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
- Bayern MünchenArsenalpreliminary6819131The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:03.1
- InterShakhtar Donetskpreliminary6122171The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.0
- Sporting CPLASKpreliminary741791The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.3
- Aston VillaVikingpreliminary5624211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
- Club BruggeLenspreliminary5723201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:12.9
- Real BetisFeyenoordpreliminary4626281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 69% will not happen in roughly 31 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →