La Liga, round 9 · Sunday, 18 October, MSK
Real Madrid — Sevilla
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 18 October
In short
Real Madrid are clear favourites: 85% against 4% for the opponent, draw 11%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.2 in total, against a competition average of 2.8.
Over 2.5 goals — 64%, both teams to score — 49%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Real Madrid are about 1.5 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Real Madrid — No. 4, 18 pts; Sevilla — No. 5, 14 pts. A gap of 4 pts.
- Last 5 meetings: Real Madrid 5 wins, Sevilla 0.
- Days of rest before the match: Real Madrid 8, Sevilla 6.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Real Madrid — Sevilla What is xG? | 2.5–0.7 | |
| Real Madrid not to lose | 96% | |
| Sevilla not to lose | 15% | |
| No draw | 89% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 49% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 51% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 64% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 36% |
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Form
- 10.10Villarreal1:0
- 20.09away · Atlético Madrid1:2
- 15.09away · Elche3:2
- 12.09Rayo Vallecano4:1
- 08.09Inter2:1
- 12.10away · Levante3:3
- 19.09Barcelona1:3
- 16.09away · Deportivo A Coruña1:0
- 11.09Valencia1:0
- 06.09away · Espanyol1:1
Head to head
- 17.05.2026Sevilla — Real Madrid0:1
- 20.12.2025Real Madrid — Sevilla2:0
- 18.05.2025Sevilla — Real Madrid0:2
- 22.12.2024Real Madrid — Sevilla4:2
- 25.02.2024Real Madrid — Sevilla1:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3, Champions League | Real Betis | 8 | 6 | +5 | 19 |
| 4, Champions League | Real Madrid | 8 | 6 | +11 | 18 |
| 5, Europa League or Conference League | Sevilla | 8 | 4 | +1 | 14 |
| 6, Europa League or Conference League | Real Sociedad | 8 | 4 | -3 | 13 |
La Liga on the same day
- 4826261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.1
- 4928231The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.5
- 2829432The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 85% will not happen in roughly 15 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →