Segunda Division, round 12 · Monday, 2 November, 20:30 MSK

Real Valladolid — Leganés

Model prediction for 2 November

Real Valladolid54%

Draw26%

Leganés20%

Model estimate at 14:19 MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Real Valladolid are clear favourites: 54% against 20% for the opponent, draw 26%.

2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).

Over 2.5 goals — 46%, both teams to score — 50%.

Why

By the strength ratings Real Valladolid are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.

Facts

League table: Real Valladolid — No. 11, 12 pts; Leganés — No. 16, 11 pts. A gap of 1 pt.
Real Valladolid: unbeaten in 4; Leganés: 3 defeats in a row.
Last 5 meetings: Real Valladolid 1 win, Leganés 2, 2 draws.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Real Valladolid — Leganés What is xG?		1.6–0.9
Real Valladolid not to lose		80%
Leganés not to lose		46%
No draw		74%
Both teams to score: yes		50%
Both teams to score: no		50%
Total over 2.5		46%
Total under 2.5		54%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Real Valladolid
Real Valladolid goals
Leganés goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Form

Real Valladolid

12.10Albacete5:0
04.10away · Las Palmas2:2
27.09Córdoba3:1
20.09away · AD Ceuta FC1:1
13.09Real Oviedo0:3

Leganés

11.10away · Almería0:3
03.10away · Cádiz0:4
28.09Castellón0:2
20.09Granada3:2
13.09away · Tenerife0:2

Head to head

14.03.2026Real Valladolid — Leganés3:2
11.01.2026Leganés — Real Valladolid3:0
24.05.2025Leganés — Real Valladolid3:0
28.08.2024Real Valladolid — Leganés0:0
03.02.2024Leganés — Real Valladolid0:0

Full record: 12 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
10	Granada	9	4	2	3	14–13	+1	14
11	Real Valladolid	9	3	3	3	13–11	+2	12
12	Tenerife	9	3	3	3	11–13	-2	12
15	Las Palmas	9	3	2	4	13–16	-3	11
16	Leganés	9	3	2	4	6–14	-8	11
17	FC Andorra	9	3	1	5	13–15	-2	10

Season 2026/27

Full table

Segunda Division on the same day

18:15
Real OviedoLas Palmaspreliminary
512722
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.6
23:00
MallorcaCádizpreliminary
612614
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.4

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 54% will not happen in roughly 46 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →