French Ligue 2, round 11 · Friday, 30 October, 22:00 MSK

Rodez — Dunkerque

Model prediction for 30 October

Rodez42%

Draw28%

Dunkerque30%

Model estimate at 14:19 MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Rodez are slightly stronger: 42% against 30%, draw 28%.

2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).

Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 60%.

Why

By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.

Facts

League table: Rodez — No. 15, 7 pts; Dunkerque — No. 12, 8 pts. A gap of 1 pt.
Rodez: 4 defeats in a row.
Last 5 meetings: Rodez 1 win, Dunkerque 1, 3 draws.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Rodez — Dunkerque What is xG?		1.6–1.3
Rodez not to lose		70%
Dunkerque not to lose		58%
No draw		72%
Both teams to score: yes		60%
Both teams to score: no		40%
Total over 2.5		54%
Total under 2.5		46%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Rodez
Rodez goals
Dunkerque goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Form

Rodez

10.10away · Saint-Étienne0:2
18.09Nancy3:4
11.09Grenoble0:1
05.09away · Metz1:4
28.08Pau2:2

Dunkerque

09.10Annecy FC0:1
18.09away · Pau0:2
12.09Saint-Étienne2:1
04.09Clermont Foot1:1
28.08away · Nancy0:2

Head to head

03.04.2026Dunkerque — Rodez1:1
21.11.2025Rodez — Dunkerque1:1
10.03.2025Rodez — Dunkerque5:1
30.08.2024Dunkerque — Rodez1:0
10.02.2024Rodez — Dunkerque0:0

Full record: 6 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
11	Guingamp	8	2	2	4	10–13	-3	8
12	Dunkerque	8	2	2	4	10–13	-3	8
13	Nantes	8	2	2	4	9–13	-4	8
14	Grenoble	8	2	2	4	8–13	-5	8
15	Rodez	8	2	1	5	14–18	-4	7
16, Relegation play-off	Boulogne	8	0	6	2	4–6	-2	6

Season 2026/27

Full table

Ligue 2 on the same day

22:00
GrenobleDijonpreliminary
382834
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
22:00
LavalBoulognepreliminary
393131
XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.4
22:00
MetzPaupreliminary
512623
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.0
22:00
NantesClermont Footpreliminary
602514
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 42% will not happen in roughly 58 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →