French Ligue 2: 2026/27 season forecast
10,000 simulations · 234 matches to play · updated 14 October 2026
The model played the remaining 234 matches 10,000 times. Saint-Étienne have the best chance to win the title: 60%, Red Star 14%. Closest to the drop: Laval (44%).
Race for the title
| Date | Saint-Étienne | Annecy FC | Reims | Red Star | Rodez | Dunkerque |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 August | 25% | 10% | 8% | 8% | 14% | 12% |
| 17 August | 39% | 16% | 5% | 7% | 6% | 11% |
| 24 August | 55% | 14% | 4% | 3% | 6% | 5% |
| 31 August | 58% | 6% | 16% | 2% | 3% | 2% |
| 7 September | 68% | 8% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% |
| 14 September | 64% | 4% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 2% |
| 21 September | 58% | 2% | 14% | 12% | <1% | 1% |
| 28 September | 60% | 2% | 12% | 12% | — | 1% |
| 5 October | 56% | 2% | 14% | 12% | 1% | 1% |
| 12 October | 61% | 2% | 9% | 13% | <1% | <1% |
| 14 October | 60% | 3% | 9% | 14% | <1% | <1% |
Chances of every team
Sorted by projected points. ▲▼ — change in percentage points over the last week. “Run-in” — how hard the remaining games are, 1 = the hardest. Upper zones include the ones above: “Up or play-offs” counts “Promotion” too.
| # | Team | Pts | Proj. | Run-in | Title | Promotion | Up or play-offs | Play-out | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saint-Étienne | 19 (8) | 70 | 16 | 60%▲4 | 79%▲4 | 95%▲1 | <1% | — |
| 2 | Red Star | 17 (8) | 60 | 8 | 14%▲2 | 35%▲5 | 74%▲4 | <1% | <1% |
| 3 | Reims | 14 (8) | 57 | 17 | 9%▼5 | 25%▼9 | 64%▼8 | <1% | <1% |
| 4 | Montpellier | 15 (8) | 57 | 18 | 7%▲1 | 23%▲5 | 64%▲7 | <1%▼1 | <1% |
| 5 | Annecy FC | 13 (8) | 51 | 12 | 3%▲1 | 9%▲2 | 39%▲8 | 2% | 1%▼2 |
| 6 | Nancy | 13 (8) | 51 | 9 | 2%▲1 | 9%▲4 | 38%▲12 | 2%▼1 | 1%▼2 |
| 7 | Metz | 10 (8) | 49 | 14 | 2%▼3 | 6%▼8 | 31%▼15 | 2%▲1 | 2%▲1 |
| 8 | Pau | 11 (8) | 46 | 2 | 1% | 3%▲1 | 19%▲5 | 4%▼2 | 5%▼4 |
| 9 | Dijon | 12 (8) | 45 | 7 | 1%▲1 | 3%▲2 | 17%▲8 | 5%▼4 | 7%▼8 |
| 10 | Guingamp | 8 (8) | 43 | 11 | 1% | 2%▼2 | 14%▼8 | 6%▲2 | 9%▲3 |
| 11 | Dunkerque | 8 (8) | 43 | 15 | <1%▼1 | 2%▼1 | 12%▼6 | 6%▲1 | 11%▲3 |
| 12 | Rodez | 7 (8) | 42 | 10 | <1%▼1 | 2% | 12% | 7% | 12% |
| 13 | Nantes | 8 (8) | 41 | 5 | <1% | 1% | 7%▲1 | 9%▼1 | 14%▼5 |
| 14 | Sochaux | 11 (8) | 39 | 4 | <1% | <1%▼1 | 5%▼1 | 10%▲1 | 18% |
| 15 | Grenoble | 8 (8) | 39 | 13 | <1% | <1%▼1 | 4%▼3 | 10% | 19%▲4 |
| 16 | Clermont Foot | 6 (8) | 36 | 6 | <1% | <1% | 2%▼1 | 12%▲1 | 28%▲5 |
| 17 | Boulogne | 6 (8) | 36 | 3 | <1% | <1% | 2%▼1 | 12% | 28% |
| 18 | Laval | 5 (8) | 33 | 1 | <1% | <1% | 1%▼1 | 12%▲1 | 44%▲5 |
Chance of every place
Show the 18 × 18 table
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint-Étienne | 60 | 19 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||
| Red Star | 14 | 21 | 17 | 12 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| Reims | 9 | 16 | 15 | 13 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Montpellier | 7 | 16 | 16 | 14 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| Annecy FC | 3 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Nancy | 2 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Metz | 2 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Pau | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
| Dijon | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
| Guingamp | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 |
| Dunkerque | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 4 | |
| Rodez | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 5 | |
| Nantes | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 6 | |
| Sochaux | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 8 | ||
| Grenoble | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | ||
| Clermont Foot | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 14 | 14 | |||
| Boulogne | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 13 | 14 | |||
| Laval | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 17 | 28 |
Percent; empty cells are under 1%.
How it is calculated
Each team gets an attack and a defence rating from this season’s matches (football: expected goals and actual goals, the opponents’ strength taken into account). Last season is only the starting point, worth eight games: after a few rounds this season decides.
Every remaining fixture is then played out with Poisson-distributed goals, 10,000 times, and each simulated season ends in a table by points, goal difference and goals scored. Ratings are only estimates and form changes, so every simulation also moves each team's strength by a random amount.
A league match within four days after a European game costs a team a little (on 2021–2026 data such sides took 0.08 points per match fewer than in their other games). Head-to-head tie-breakers, points deductions and domestic cups are not modelled. The forecast is recalculated as soon as new results come in.