UEFA Champions League, round 3 · Tuesday, 20 October, MSK
Sabah FK — Borussia Dortmund
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 20 October
In short
Borussia Dortmund are clear favourites: 70% against 12% for the opponent, draw 18%.
3.1 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.5).
Over 2.5 goals — 61%, both teams to score — 51%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Borussia Dortmund are about 1.1 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Sabah FK — Borussia Dortmund What is xG? | 0.8–2.3 | |
| Sabah FK not to lose | 30% | |
| Borussia Dortmund not to lose | 88% | |
| No draw | 82% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 51% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 49% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 61% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 39% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Sabah FK
- Sabah FK goals
- Borussia Dortmund goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 09.10Werder Bremen2:2
- 19.09away · VfB Stuttgart1:0
- 12.09Paderborn3:0
- 08.09Villarreal3:2
- 05.09away · Hoffenheim3:2
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Real Betis | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 14, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 15, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Liverpool | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 20, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | RB Leipzig | 2 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 21, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Sabah FK | 2 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 22, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Roma | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Champions League on the same day
- 751691The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.3
- 4426301The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
- 6022171The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:03.0
- 761581The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.3
- 91721The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:04.1
- 5225231The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:02.9
- 3727371The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- 4626281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 70% will not happen in roughly 30 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →