Turkish Super Lig, round 7 · Saturday, 10 October, MSK · Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu
Samsunspor — Trabzonspor
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0:3Came true
In short
Final score 0:3: the model's most likely outcome, Trabzonspor to win (40%), came true.
Trabzonspor are slightly stronger: 40% against 32%, draw 28%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 59%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Facts
- Samsunspor: 4 defeats in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Samsunspor 1 win, Trabzonspor 1, 3 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Samsunspor — Trabzonspor What is xG? | 1.3–1.5 | |
| Samsunspor not to lose | 60% | |
| Trabzonspor not to lose | 68% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 59% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 41% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 54% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 46% |
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Form
- 20.09away · Erzurumspor FK0:1
- 12.09Çorum FK1:5
- 06.09away · Kocaelispor0:1
- 30.08Fenerbahçe0:2
- 22.08away · Rizespor2:0
- 19.09Galatasaray4:0
- 12.09away · Konyaspor0:1
- 06.09Gençlerbirliği5:0
- 31.08away · Amed Sportif1:2
- 23.08Başakşehir2:1
Head to head
- 23.04.2026Samsunspor — Trabzonspor0:0
- 07.02.2026Samsunspor — Trabzonspor0:3
- 31.08.2025Trabzonspor — Samsunspor1:1
- 25.05.2025Trabzonspor — Samsunspor2:2
- 04.01.2025Samsunspor — Trabzonspor2:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4, Europa League or Conference League | Fenerbahçe | 7 | 4 | +13 | 13 |
| 5 | Trabzonspor | 7 | 4 | +11 | 13 |
| 6 | Alanyaspor | 7 | 3 | +2 | 12 |
| 16, Relegation | Konyaspor | 7 | 1 | -4 | 5 |
| 17, Relegation | Samsunspor | 7 | 1 | -9 | 4 |
| 18, Relegation | Eyüpspor | 7 | 1 | -18 | 3 |
Next matches
- KuPSTrabzonspor15 October · Conference League2024562The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.9
- KasımpaşaSamsunspor18 October · Super Lig4130281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.4
Super Lig on the same day
- 2226522The most likely outcome did not happen: 22:2Final score 2:2. Model's score: 1:2.3.1
- 6025151The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 2:0.2.2
- 2226522The most likely outcome came true: 20:3Final score 0:3. Model's score: 0:1.3.2
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →