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Turkish Super Lig, round 7 · Saturday, 10 October, MSK · Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu

Samsunspor — Trabzonspor

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Model prediction and result

0:3Came true
Samsunspor32%
Draw28%
Trabzonspor40%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 0:3: the model's most likely outcome, Trabzonspor to win (40%), came true.

Trabzonspor are slightly stronger: 40% against 32%, draw 28%.

2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).

Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 59%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.

Facts

  • Samsunspor: 4 defeats in a row.
  • Last 5 meetings: Samsunspor 1 win, Trabzonspor 1, 3 draws.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Samsunspor — Trabzonspor What is xG?1.3–1.5
Samsunspor not to lose60%
Trabzonspor not to lose68%
No draw72%
Both teams to score: yes59%
Both teams to score: no41%
Total over 2.554%
Total under 2.546%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Samsunspor
  • Samsunspor goals
  • Trabzonspor goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Form

Samsunspor

  • 20.09away · Erzurumspor FK0:1
  • 12.09Çorum FK1:5
  • 06.09away · Kocaelispor0:1
  • 30.08Fenerbahçe0:2
  • 22.08away · Rizespor2:0

Trabzonspor

  • 19.09Galatasaray4:0
  • 12.09away · Konyaspor0:1
  • 06.09Gençlerbirliği5:0
  • 31.08away · Amed Sportif1:2
  • 23.08Başakşehir2:1

Head to head

  • 23.04.2026Samsunspor — Trabzonspor0:0
  • 07.02.2026Samsunspor — Trabzonspor0:3
  • 31.08.2025Trabzonspor — Samsunspor1:1
  • 25.05.2025Trabzonspor — Samsunspor2:2
  • 04.01.2025Samsunspor — Trabzonspor2:1

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
4, Europa League or Conference LeagueFenerbahçe741219–6+1313
5Trabzonspor741216–5+1113
6Alanyaspor73318–6+212
16, RelegationKonyaspor71244–8-45
17, RelegationSamsunspor71156–15-94
18, RelegationEyüpspor71062–20-183

Season 2026/27

Full table

Next matches

  • KuPSTrabzonspor15 October · Conference League
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:33.1
  • KasımpaşaSamsunspor18 October · Super Lig
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.5

Super Lig on the same day

  • GençlerbirliğiAmed Sportif
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 2:2. Model's score: 1:2.3.1
  • AlanyasporErzurumspor FK
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 0:0. Model's score: 2:0.2.2
  • RizesporFenerbahçe
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 0:3. Model's score: 0:1.3.2

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →