Turkish Super Lig, round 7 · Saturday, 10 October, MSK · Çaykur Didi Stadyumu
Rizespor — Fenerbahçe
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0:3Came true
In short
Final score 0:3: the model's most likely outcome, Fenerbahçe to win (52%), came true.
Fenerbahçe are clear favourites: 52% against 22% for the opponent, draw 26%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.2 in total, against a competition average of 2.7.
Over 2.5 goals — 63%, both teams to score — 65%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Fenerbahçe are about 0.7 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Rizespor — Fenerbahçe What is xG? | 1.3–1.9 | |
| Rizespor not to lose | 48% | |
| Fenerbahçe not to lose | 78% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 65% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 35% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 63% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 37% |
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Form
- 20.09away · Göztepe2:2
- 12.09away · Eyüpspor2:0
- 07.09Alanyaspor0:1
- 29.08away · Gaziantep FK2:1
- 22.08Samsunspor0:2
- 20.09Eyüpspor8:0
- 14.09away · Gaziantep FK0:0
- 10.09Roma1:1
- 05.09Beşiktaş1:2
- 30.08away · Samsunspor2:0
Head to head
- 17.04.2026Fenerbahçe — Rizespor2:2
- 23.11.2025Rizespor — Fenerbahçe2:5
- 02.02.2025Fenerbahçe — Rizespor3:2
- 25.08.2024Rizespor — Fenerbahçe0:5
- 17.02.2024Rizespor — Fenerbahçe1:3
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3, Europa League or Conference League | Amed Sportif | 7 | 4 | +8 | 14 |
| 4, Europa League or Conference League | Fenerbahçe | 7 | 4 | +13 | 13 |
| 5 | Trabzonspor | 7 | 4 | +11 | 13 |
| 9 | Kasımpaşa | 7 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 10 | Rizespor | 7 | 3 | -2 | 10 |
| 11 | Başakşehir | 7 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
Next matches
- Aston VillaFenerbahçe14 October · Champions League5125241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
- Çorum FKRizespor16 October · Super Lig4528281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.2
Super Lig on the same day
- 2226522The most likely outcome did not happen: 22:2Final score 2:2. Model's score: 1:2.3.1
- 6025151The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 2:0.2.2
- 3228402The most likely outcome came true: 20:3Final score 0:3. Model's score: 1:2.2.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 52% will not happen in roughly 48 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →