J1 League (Japan), round 10 · Saturday, 17 October, MSK
Sanfrecce Hiroshima — Kyoto Sanga FC
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 17 October
In short
Sanfrecce Hiroshima are clear favourites: 75% against 8% for the opponent, draw 17%.
2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).
Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 48%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Sanfrecce Hiroshima are about 1.2 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Sanfrecce Hiroshima — No. 2, 20 pts; Kyoto Sanga FC — No. 16, 8 pts. A gap of 12 pts.
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima: 3 wins in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1 win, Kyoto Sanga FC 3, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Sanfrecce Hiroshima — Kyoto Sanga FC What is xG? | 2.2–0.7 | |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima not to lose | 92% | |
| Kyoto Sanga FC not to lose | 25% | |
| No draw | 83% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 48% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 52% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 55% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 45% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Sanfrecce Hiroshima
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima goals
- Kyoto Sanga FC goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 11.10away · Tokyo Verdy2:0
- 19.09away · Avispa Fukuoka1:0
- 12.09Cerezo Osaka6:1
- 06.09away · Fagiano Okayama FC2:3
- 02.09Nagoya Grampus3:0
- 10.10Machida Zelvia0:1
- 19.09away · Fagiano Okayama FC2:1
- 11.09Kashiwa Reysol2:3
- 06.09away · FC Tokyo0:2
- 02.09away · Yokohama F.Marinos1:1
Head to head
- 17.05.2026Kyoto Sanga FC — Sanfrecce Hiroshima0:4
- 27.02.2026Sanfrecce Hiroshima — Kyoto Sanga FC1:2
- 12.09.2025Sanfrecce Hiroshima — Kyoto Sanga FC1:1
- 29.03.2025Kyoto Sanga FC — Sanfrecce Hiroshima1:0
- 03.11.2024Sanfrecce Hiroshima — Kyoto Sanga FC0:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kashiwa Reysol | 9 | 7 | +7 | 21 |
| 2 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 9 | 6 | +16 | 20 |
| 3 | Machida Zelvia | 9 | 6 | +12 | 20 |
| 15 | Nagoya Grampus | 9 | 3 | -6 | 9 |
| 16 | Kyoto Sanga FC | 9 | 2 | -5 | 8 |
| 17 | Avispa Fukuoka | 9 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
J1 League on the same day
- 3729341The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
- 2827452The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.7
- 1927542The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.4
- 3627372The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.1
- 5924171The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.7
- 2928422The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.6
- 5625181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 75% will not happen in roughly 25 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →