Brazilian Serie A, round 33 · Thursday, 29 October, MSK
Santos — Palmeiras
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 29 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Evenly matched: Santos 32%, Palmeiras 39%, draw 29%.
2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 58%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Facts
- League table: Santos — No. 8, 42 pts; Palmeiras — No. 2, 63 pts. A gap of 21 pts.
- Last 5 meetings: Santos 1 win, Palmeiras 2, 2 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Santos — Palmeiras What is xG? | 1.3–1.4 | |
| Santos not to lose | 61% | |
| Palmeiras not to lose | 68% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 58% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 42% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 53% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 47% |
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Form
- 11.10away · Atlético-MG1:2
- 09.10Flamengo2:2
- 03.10away · São Paulo2:1
- 20.09away · Remo2:1
- 17.09away · Atlético-MG2:4
- 11.10Corinthians4:1
- 09.10Bahia1:0
- 20.09away · Grêmio0:0
- 17.09away · LDU de Quito2:3
- 13.09São Paulo2:0
Head to head
- 03.09.2026Santos — Palmeiras0:0
- 27.08.2026Palmeiras — Santos3:0
- 03.05.2026Palmeiras — Santos1:1
- 16.11.2025Santos — Palmeiras1:0
- 07.11.2025Palmeiras — Santos2:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Copa Libertadores | Flamengo | 30 | 19 | +33 | 64 |
| 2, Copa Libertadores | Palmeiras | 30 | 18 | +30 | 63 |
| 3, Copa Libertadores | Athletico Paranaense | 30 | 15 | +14 | 53 |
| 7, Copa Sudamericana | Atlético-MG | 30 | 13 | +6 | 47 |
| 8, Copa Sudamericana | Santos | 30 | 11 | +1 | 42 |
| 9, Copa Sudamericana | RB Bragantino | 30 | 11 | +3 | 40 |
Brasileirao on the same day
- FluminenseInternacionalpreliminary5327201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.6
- RB BragantinoChapecoensepreliminary741791The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.2
- BahiaSão Paulopreliminary5825171The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
- RemoBotafogopreliminary343036XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 39% will not happen in roughly 61 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →