Brazilian Serie A, round 33 · Thursday, 29 October, MSK
Bahia — São Paulo
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 29 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Bahia are clear favourites: 57% against 18% for the opponent, draw 25%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 54%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Bahia are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Bahia — São Paulo What is xG? | 1.8–1.0 | |
| Bahia not to lose | 82% | |
| São Paulo not to lose | 43% | |
| No draw | 75% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 54% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 46% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 52% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 48% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Bahia
- Bahia goals
- São Paulo goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month
Form
- 12.10Mirassol1:0
- 09.10away · Palmeiras0:1
- 21.09away · Athletico Paranaense1:2
- 15.09Remo2:1
- 05.09away · RB Bragantino3:2
- 11.10Vitória2:1
- 08.10away · Cruzeiro0:2
- 03.10Santos1:2
- 20.09Internacional1:0
- 16.09Boca Juniors1:1
Head to head
- 03.05.2026São Paulo — Bahia2:2
- 26.10.2025São Paulo — Bahia2:0
- 01.06.2025Bahia — São Paulo2:1
- 06.11.2024Bahia — São Paulo0:3
- 30.06.2024São Paulo — Bahia3:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4, Copa Libertadores | Fluminense | 30 | 14 | +11 | 51 |
| 5, Copa Libertadores | Bahia | 30 | 13 | +8 | 49 |
| 6, Copa Sudamericana | Cruzeiro | 30 | 14 | +2 | 48 |
| 9, Copa Sudamericana | RB Bragantino | 30 | 11 | +3 | 40 |
| 10, Copa Sudamericana | São Paulo | 30 | 11 | 0 | 39 |
| 11, Copa Sudamericana | Coritiba | 30 | 10 | -10 | 39 |
Brasileirao on the same day
- FluminenseInternacionalpreliminary5427191The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.6
- SantosPalmeiraspreliminary3429372The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.5
- RB BragantinoChapecoensepreliminary7118101The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.1
- RemoBotafogopreliminary333036XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 57% will not happen in roughly 43 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →