J1 League (Japan), round 10 · Saturday, 17 October, MSK
Shimizu S-Pulse — Gamba Osaka
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 17 October
In short
Evenly matched: Shimizu S-Pulse 37%, Gamba Osaka 34%, draw 29%.
2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).
Over 2.5 goals — 51%, both teams to score — 58%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Facts
- League table: Shimizu S-Pulse — No. 10, 13 pts; Gamba Osaka — No. 18, 6 pts. A gap of 7 pts.
- Shimizu S-Pulse: 3 wins in a row; Gamba Osaka: 4 defeats in a row.
- Last 4 meetings: Shimizu S-Pulse 0 wins, Gamba Osaka 2, 2 draws.
- Days of rest before the match: Shimizu S-Pulse 6, Gamba Osaka 8.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Shimizu S-Pulse — Gamba Osaka What is xG? | 1.4–1.3 | |
| Shimizu S-Pulse not to lose | 66% | |
| Gamba Osaka not to lose | 63% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 58% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 42% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 51% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 49% |
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- Gamba Osaka goals
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Form
- 11.10away · Mito Hollyhock2:1
- 19.09JEF United Chiba2:1
- 12.09Avispa Fukuoka1:0
- 06.09away · Kawasaki Frontale1:3
- 02.09FC Tokyo1:1
- 09.10away · Kashima Antlers0:2
- 20.09Vissel Kobe0:1
- 12.09FC Tokyo0:2
- 06.09away · JEF United Chiba0:2
- 02.09away · V-Varen Nagasaki2:2
Head to head
- 24.05.2026Shimizu S-Pulse — Gamba Osaka1:2
- 28.02.2026Gamba Osaka — Shimizu S-Pulse2:2
- 15.06.2025Shimizu S-Pulse — Gamba Osaka0:0
- 08.03.2025Gamba Osaka — Shimizu S-Pulse1:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Fagiano Okayama FC | 9 | 4 | 0 | 13 |
| 10 | Shimizu S-Pulse | 9 | 4 | -1 | 13 |
| 11 | Urawa Red Diamonds | 9 | 4 | -5 | 12 |
| 17 | Avispa Fukuoka | 9 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 18, Relegation | Gamba Osaka | 9 | 1 | -8 | 6 |
| 19, Relegation | JEF United Chiba | 9 | 1 | -11 | 5 |
J1 League on the same day
- 2827452The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.7
- 751781The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
- 1927542The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.4
- 3627372The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.1
- 5924171The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.7
- 2928422The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.6
- 5625181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 37% will not happen in roughly 63 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →