EFL Championship, round 11 · Saturday, 17 October, MSK
Southampton — Bolton Wanderers
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 17 October
In short
Southampton are clear favourites: 62% against 16% for the opponent, draw 22%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.5 in total, against a competition average of 2.6.
Over 2.5 goals — 68%, both teams to score — 64%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Southampton are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Southampton — No. 3, 17 pts; Bolton Wanderers — No. 14, 13 pts. A gap of 4 pts.
- Days of rest before the match: Southampton 6, Bolton Wanderers 4.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Southampton — Bolton Wanderers What is xG? | 2.3–1.2 | |
| Southampton not to lose | 84% | |
| Bolton Wanderers not to lose | 38% | |
| No draw | 78% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 64% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 36% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 68% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 32% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Southampton
- Southampton goals
- Bolton Wanderers goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 11.10Portsmouth1:0
- 19.09away · Wrexham1:2
- 12.09Bristol City4:1
- 08.09Swansea City3:1
- 05.09away · Lincoln City1:1
- 13.10away · Wolverhampton Wanderers3:1
- 10.10Stoke City1:2
- 20.09away · Norwich City4:3
- 12.09Cardiff City1:0
- 08.09West Ham United2:3
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2, Promotion | Middlesbrough | 10 | 6 | +6 | 21 |
| 3, Promotion play-offs | Southampton | 9 | 5 | +10 | 17 |
| 4, Promotion play-offs | Birmingham City | 10 | 4 | +6 | 17 |
| 13 | Charlton Athletic | 10 | 3 | -3 | 14 |
| 14 | Bolton Wanderers | 10 | 4 | -3 | 13 |
| 15 | Sheffield United | 9 | 3 | +1 | 12 |
Championship on the same day
- 6720131The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.5
- 4729251The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.5
- 4329281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.4
- 5127221The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.5
- 3929321The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.7
- 5127231The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.5
- 4927241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
- 3628362The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.2
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 62% will not happen in roughly 38 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →