Segunda Division, round 8 · Sunday, 4 October, MSK · Estadio Municipal El Molinón-Enrique Castro Quini
Sporting Gijón — Celta Fortuna
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3:2Came true
In short
Final score 3:2: the model's most likely outcome, Sporting Gijón to win (48%), came true.
Sporting Gijón are clear favourites: 48% against 26% for the opponent, draw 26%.
2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).
Over 2.5 goals — 44%, both teams to score — 48%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Sporting Gijón are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Sporting Gijón — Celta Fortuna What is xG? | 1.5–1.0 | |
| Sporting Gijón not to lose | 74% | |
| Celta Fortuna not to lose | 52% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 48% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 52% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 44% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 56% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Sporting Gijón
- Sporting Gijón goals
- Celta Fortuna goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 27.09away · Real Oviedo0:2
- 19.09away · FC Andorra3:1
- 13.09Eldense0:1
- 05.09Girona0:2
- 28.08away · Tenerife1:0
- 26.09Sabadell1:1
- 20.09away · Almería0:2
- 14.09Eibar0:4
- 05.09away · AD Ceuta FC2:0
- 31.08Castellón1:2
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5, Promotion play-offs | Sabadell | 9 | 4 | +3 | 16 |
| 6, Promotion play-offs | Sporting Gijón | 9 | 5 | +1 | 16 |
| 7 | Girona | 9 | 4 | +6 | 15 |
| 12 | Tenerife | 9 | 3 | -2 | 12 |
| 13 | Celta Fortuna | 9 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 14 | Eldense | 9 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
Next matches
- Celta FortunaReal Sociedad B10 October · Segunda Division4228301The most likely outcome came true: 14:1Final score 4:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.8
- CádizSporting Gijón11 October · Segunda Division372934XThe most likely outcome did not happen: X0:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 0:0.2.4
Segunda Division on the same day
- 4029311The most likely outcome did not happen: 12:3Final score 2:3. Model's score: 1:0.2.3
- 7515101The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 3:1.3.7
- 3931301The most likely outcome did not happen: 12:2Final score 2:2. Model's score: 1:0.1.9
- 5424221The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 2:1.2.6
- 4430261The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 1:0.2.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 48% will not happen in roughly 52 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →