Segunda Division, round 9 · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · JP Financial Estadio
Cádiz — Sporting Gijón
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0:1Missed
In short
Final score 0:1: the model's most likely outcome, a draw (29%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 29% fails in about 71 matches out of 100 on average.
Evenly matched: Cádiz 37%, Sporting Gijón 34%, draw 29%.
2.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).
Over 2.5 goals — 43%, both teams to score — 51%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Sporting Gijón are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- Last 5 meetings: Cádiz 2 wins, Sporting Gijón 2, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Cádiz — Sporting Gijón What is xG? | 1.2–1.2 | |
| Cádiz not to lose | 66% | |
| Sporting Gijón not to lose | 63% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 51% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 49% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 43% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 57% |
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- All totals
- Handicap Cádiz
- Cádiz goals
- Sporting Gijón goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 04.10Celta Fortuna3:2
- 27.09away · Real Oviedo0:2
- 19.09away · FC Andorra3:1
- 13.09Eldense0:1
- 05.09Girona0:2
Head to head
- 19.04.2026Sporting Gijón — Cádiz3:0
- 09.01.2026Cádiz — Sporting Gijón3:2
- 25.04.2025Cádiz — Sporting Gijón1:0
- 02.11.2024Sporting Gijón — Cádiz2:0
- 15.01.2022Sporting Gijón — Cádiz0:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5, Promotion play-offs | Sabadell | 9 | 4 | +3 | 16 |
| 6, Promotion play-offs | Sporting Gijón | 9 | 5 | +1 | 16 |
| 7 | Girona | 9 | 4 | +6 | 15 |
| 19, Relegation | Real Sociedad B | 9 | 2 | -5 | 8 |
| 20, Relegation | Cádiz | 9 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 21, Relegation | AD Ceuta FC | 9 | 1 | -12 | 5 |
Next matches
- Sporting GijónAlbacete17 October · Segunda Division5227211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.6
- GranadaCádiz18 October · Segunda Division5725191The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.6
Segunda Division on the same day
- 3227412The most likely outcome did not happen: 21:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 1:2.3.2
- 5824181The most likely outcome came true: 13:0Final score 3:0. Model's score: 1:0.3.1
- 4530241The most likely outcome came true: 13:1Final score 3:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 37% will not happen in roughly 63 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →