Belgian Pro League, round 8 · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · Stade Maurice Dufrasne
Standard Liège — Sporting Charleroi
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0:1Missed
In short
Final score 0:1: the model's most likely outcome, a draw (29%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 29% fails in about 71 matches out of 100 on average.
Evenly matched: Standard Liège 34%, Sporting Charleroi 37%, draw 29%.
2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 50%, both teams to score — 57%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Sporting Charleroi are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Standard Liège — Sporting Charleroi What is xG? | 1.3–1.4 | |
| Standard Liège not to lose | 63% | |
| Sporting Charleroi not to lose | 66% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 57% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 43% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 50% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 50% |
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Form
- 18.09away · Gent1:2
- 12.09away · Westerlo2:4
- 05.09Royal Antwerp1:0
- 29.08away · OH Leuven2:1
- 21.08RAAL La Louvière2:0
- 19.09Cercle Brugge3:2
- 13.09away · Zulte Waregem1:0
- 05.09Union St.Gilloise2:3
- 29.08away · Kortrijk3:1
- 22.08KV Mechelen2:0
Head to head
- 23.05.2026Standard Liège — Sporting Charleroi0:2
- 18.04.2026Sporting Charleroi — Standard Liège1:2
- 18.01.2026Sporting Charleroi — Standard Liège2:0
- 31.10.2025Standard Liège — Sporting Charleroi3:1
- 04.05.2025Standard Liège — Sporting Charleroi0:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2, Champions League qualifying | Club Brugge | 8 | 7 | +15 | 21 |
| 3, Europa League or Conference League | Sporting Charleroi | 8 | 7 | +9 | 21 |
| 4, Europa League or Conference League | Union St.Gilloise | 8 | 6 | +18 | 20 |
| 8 | Zulte Waregem | 8 | 3 | +1 | 11 |
| 9 | Standard Liège | 8 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Lommel | 8 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
Next matches
- Standard LiègeFCV Dender EH16 October · Belgian Cup5724201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
- Renaissance MonsSporting Charleroi17 October · Belgian Cup511842The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:33.6
Belgian Pro League on the same day
- 781561The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 2:0.2.8
- 4727271The most likely outcome came true: 15:1Final score 5:1. Model's score: 2:1.3.2
- 3028422The most likely outcome did not happen: 24:3Final score 4:3. Model's score: 0:1.2.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 37% will not happen in roughly 63 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →