Belgian Pro League, round 8 · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · Stade Joseph Mariën
Union St.Gilloise — OH Leuven
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In short
Final score 1:1: the model's most likely outcome, Union St.Gilloise to win (78%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 78% fails in about 22 matches out of 100 on average.
Union St.Gilloise are clear favourites: 78% against 6% for the opponent, draw 15%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 41%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Union St.Gilloise are about 1.5 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Union St.Gilloise — OH Leuven What is xG? | 2.2–0.6 | |
| Union St.Gilloise not to lose | 94% | |
| OH Leuven not to lose | 22% | |
| No draw | 85% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 41% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 59% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 53% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 47% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Union St.Gilloise
- Union St.Gilloise goals
- OH Leuven goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 20.09away · Royal Antwerp2:0
- 17.09away · Viktoria Plzeň3:0
- 12.09Lommel5:0
- 05.09away · Sporting Charleroi3:2
- 02.09away · St.Truiden3:0
- 19.09RAAL La Louvière2:0
- 12.09Cercle Brugge1:1
- 06.09away · SK Beveren0:3
- 03.09away · Gent0:1
- 29.08Standard Liège1:2
Head to head
- 24.01.2026OH Leuven — Union St.Gilloise0:0
- 03.08.2025Union St.Gilloise — OH Leuven5:0
- 19.01.2025Union St.Gilloise — OH Leuven1:0
- 24.11.2024OH Leuven — Union St.Gilloise1:1
- 02.03.2024OH Leuven — Union St.Gilloise0:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3, Europa League or Conference League | Sporting Charleroi | 8 | 7 | +9 | 21 |
| 4, Europa League or Conference League | Union St.Gilloise | 8 | 6 | +18 | 20 |
| 5 | Anderlecht | 8 | 5 | +3 | 16 |
| 14 | KV Mechelen | 8 | 1 | -8 | 6 |
| 15 | OH Leuven | 8 | 1 | -8 | 5 |
| 16 | RAAL La Louvière | 8 | 1 | -10 | 4 |
Next matches
- Union St.GilloiseReal Sociedad15 October · Europa League6720131The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.1
- OH LeuvenFrancs Borains17 October · Belgian Cup6720131The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.1
Belgian Pro League on the same day
- 342937XThe most likely outcome did not happen: X0:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 0:0.2.7
- 4727271The most likely outcome came true: 15:1Final score 5:1. Model's score: 2:1.3.2
- 3028422The most likely outcome did not happen: 24:3Final score 4:3. Model's score: 0:1.2.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 78% will not happen in roughly 22 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →