Belgian Cup, playoff · Friday, 16 October, MSK
Standard Liège — FCV Dender EH
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 16 October
In short
Standard Liège are clear favourites: 57% against 20% for the opponent, draw 24%.
2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.1).
Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 55%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Standard Liège are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Standard Liège — FCV Dender EH What is xG? | 1.9–1.0 | |
| Standard Liège not to lose | 80% | |
| FCV Dender EH not to lose | 43% | |
| No draw | 76% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 55% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 45% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 55% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 45% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Standard Liège
- Standard Liège goals
- FCV Dender EH goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 11.10Sporting Charleroi0:1
- 18.09away · Gent1:2
- 12.09away · Westerlo2:4
- 05.09Royal Antwerp1:0
- 29.08away · OH Leuven2:1
- 09.05away · Zulte Waregem1:2
- 03.05RAAL La Louvière2:1
- 24.04away · Cercle Brugge1:2
- 19.04Cercle Brugge1:4
- 12.04Zulte Waregem1:2
Head to head
- 20.12.2025FCV Dender EH — Standard Liège0:1
- 02.12.2025FCV Dender EH — Standard Liège3:2
- 02.08.2025Standard Liège — FCV Dender EH1:1
- 17.05.2025Standard Liège — FCV Dender EH0:0
- 13.04.2025FCV Dender EH — Standard Liège1:1
Belgian Cup on the same day
- 5524211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
- 1219692The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:33.1
- 791471The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.4
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 57% will not happen in roughly 43 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →